Pending sales rose 57% year over year and dollar volume jumped 28%, the largest gains in the region
The Estero housing market led Southwest Florida on three demand-side metrics in April. Pending sales grew 56.7% year over year (104 to 163), and dollar volume rose 28.0% to $120 million. Overall months of supply compressed 45.2%, from 9.3 to 5.1. Competitive Months of Supply reached 2.0, the tightest in the region, against the lowest Re-list Rate at 23.0%. For regional context across the same data window, see the Southwest Florida housing market update.
Data reflects MLS records as of May 1, 2026. MLS figures may update as late transactions are recorded.
Key Takeaways
- Pending sales reached 163 in April, up 56.7% year over year, the largest pending increase among the five cities.
- Dollar volume reached $120 million, up 28.0% year over year, the largest dollar-volume gain in the region.
- Active inventory fell to 641, down 29.9% year over year, with months of supply dropping 45.2% from 9.3 to 5.1, the steepest compression in the region.
- The Re-list Rate is 23.0%, the lowest in the region, with 102 meaningful relists in the active pool and only 44 returning unchanged from prior pricing.
- Competitive Months of Supply is 2.0, the tightest in Southwest Florida, against an overall 3.9 (using consistent 3-month closing pace), with relisted homes selling at $49,950 (10.0%) below original ask versus 59 days for first-attempt sales.
Regional Snapshot at a Glance
The table below summarizes the headline market metrics for each of the five Southwest Florida cities Worthington tracks, with Estero’s row highlighted. The detailed analysis that follows works through Estero’s metrics in turn.
| City | Median Sold Price | Price/SF | Active Listings | Months of Supply | Sold-to-List | Closed Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $325,000 | $206 | 3,221 | 7.0 | 95.9% | +8.0% |
| Cape Coral | $368,950 | $216 | 2,951 | 5.9 | 97.2% | +7.5% |
| Estero | $532,500 | $263 | 641 | 5.1 | 96.3% | +20.8% |
| Bonita Springs | $575,000 | $317 | 1,067 | 6.9 | 95.9% | +6.7% |
| Naples | $658,000 | $354 | 5,642 | 7.7 | 95.4% | +11.8% |
Source: FGCMLS via Stellar MLS. Single-month data unless otherwise noted. Sold-to-list uses most recent list price at time of contract. Estero three-month rolling median is $490,000.
Demand Surged While Supply Compressed Sharply
Closed sales tell us what buyers decided weeks ago, while pending sales tell us what they are deciding right now.
Estero recorded 174 closed sales in April, up 20.8% from April 2025, the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Of the five cities Worthington tracks, only Naples (+11.8%) and Estero showed double-digit closing growth this month.
Pending sales totaled 163 new contracts in April, up 56.7% from a year ago, the largest pending-sales increase in the region. The April Pending-to-Active Ratio of 25.4% (about one new contract per four active listings) is the highest among the five cities. The trailing three-month pending-to-closed ratio holds above 1.0, meaning more contracts are being signed than are closing each month.
New listings totaled 150 in April, down 19.8% from 187 a year ago. Sellers in Estero are listing meaningfully less new product than they were a year ago. Combined with the demand surge, the result is the steepest months-of-supply compression in the region.
Inventory Drained 29.9% Year Over Year, the Largest Drop in the Region
April ended with an active inventory of 641 homes, down 29.9% from 914 a year ago. That is the largest year-over-year inventory decline among the five cities. There are 527 Estero listings that expired, were terminated, or were withdrawn from the market over the past 12 months. We refer to this as Shadow Inventory. These sellers may decide to return to the market with a new agent or at a new price point. While not a precise count, Shadow Inventory is a variable to consider against the available supply of homes for sale. Estero’s count is the smallest in the region in absolute terms.
Showings per listing reached 3.6 in April, up 20.0% from 3.0 a year ago. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.30% as of April 30, 2026, per Freddie Mac. That is down from 6.46% a month earlier and 6.76% a year ago. At April’s $532,500 median sale price and 6.30%, a 20%-down conventional loan produces about $2,637 in monthly principal and interest. Property taxes, insurance, and HOA dues are additional.
Median Price Reflects Sales Mix; Rolling Average Tracks Underlying Values
Price per square foot (PPSF) tells you what buyers are paying per square foot of living space. PPSF is a cleaner read on home value than the median price. The median sale price moves around when the mix of homes closing in a given month changes.
Estero’s three-month rolling median sale price is $490,000, down 6.7% from $525,000 a year ago and unchanged from March 2026. The single-month April figure of $532,500 is down 3.6% from $552,500 in April 2025 and up 8.7% from $490,000 in March. The figure reflects the specific mix of homes that closed against Estero’s relatively low monthly volume of around 175 closings.
Estero’s three-month rolling PPSF is $253, down 9.6% from $280 a year ago. The single-month April PPSF of $263 sits slightly above the rolling figure. PPSF has been drifting down across the past 12 months. Monthly readings have fallen from $293 last April into the $249 to $272 range over the most recent six months.
Dollar volume reached $120 million, up 28.0% year over year, the largest gain in the region. Closings rose 20.8% and dollar volume rose 28.0%, meaning the average sale price rose modestly. PPSF dropped meanwhile, so the dollar gain reflects more closings and a slightly higher-priced mix of homes rather than per-square-foot value gains.
The April sold-to-list ratio reached 96.3%, essentially unchanged from 96.4% a year ago. Sellers received about 96.3% of their most recent asking price at the closing table, meaning buyers negotiated roughly 3.7% off list.
Price reductions have been recorded on roughly 35% to 40% of currently listed Estero homes, similar to last month. When those reductions still don’t generate offers, listings often expire and return later as relists.
The Relist Cost Analysis Shows $49,950 in Pricing Misalignment
The Re-list Rate measures what share of currently listed homes have already failed to sell at least once in the past 12 months. It tells us how sellers as a group are responding to current market conditions.
Of the 635 Estero active listings in the address-matched analysis set, 146 (23.0%) have a prior listing in the trailing 12 months at the same address. Estero has the lowest Re-list Rate in the region this month, meaning sellers are not accumulating here the way they are in Fort Myers (28.1%) or Bonita Springs (26.7%). Of those 146 returning listings, 102 came back with a price reduction of 3% or more from their previous attempt. Those are eligible for Competitive Inventory if they are also under 90 days into the current attempt. The remaining 44 returned at the same price or with a reduction under 3%, so they do not count as competitive supply.
The Relist Cost Analysis follows the homes that did eventually sell after one or more failed attempts. Across the past 4 months, sellers in this group originally asked a median of $499,950 and ultimately sold at a median of $450,000. That is a $49,950 gap (10.0% off the original asking price), the smallest percentage gap in the region. Combined across all listing attempts, these homes spent a median of 258 days on the market before closing. First-attempt sales cleared in 59 days. The relist process takes about 4.4 times longer to find a buyer than pricing correctly the first time.
The 44 returning listings without a price reduction are a small count, which reflects how disciplined Estero sellers have been with their pricing this cycle. Buyers active in this city face fewer obviously overpriced listings than in cities with larger returning-listings pools.
Competitive Inventory Reduces 3.9 Months of Supply to 2.0
Competitive Inventory strips stale listings and returning listings priced the same as before from the active count. The result reflects the supply that’s actively competing for buyers right now.
Three-part breakdown for Estero:
- Overall months of supply: 3.9 (using a trailing 3-month closing pace of 163 sales/month; the InfoSparks-published figure of 5.1 cited elsewhere uses a 12-month rolling pace)
- Stale-stripped months of supply: 3.2 (after removing 110 listings at 180-plus days on market without a meaningful reduction)
- Competitive Months of Supply: 2.0 (after additionally removing stubborn relists and listings 90 to 179 days old; resulting count of 318 listings under 90 days that are first-attempt or meaningful relists, the tightest in the region)
Higher-Priced Active Listings Are Priced Below Recent Sold Levels
Estero’s active asking PPSF runs 5.7% above the recent sold PPSF on a blended basis, the second-tightest active-vs-sold PPSF spread in the region. This compares the median PPSF of homes currently for sale ($270) to the median PPSF of homes that have closed over the past 4 months ($255). The two figures look at different time frames. Active asks are a snapshot of what sellers want right now, while sold PPSF reflects what buyers paid over the last 4 months. The spread shows the general direction of pricing, not whether any specific seller is asking too much.
By price range, the picture turns unusual. Under $400K, the spread is 8.3%. The $400K to $750K range comes in at 2.5%. From $750K to $1.5M, the spread is negative at -3.3%, meaning active listings in that range are priced below where similar homes have been clearing. The $1.5M to $3M tier is also slightly negative at -1.4%.
In Estero’s higher-end price ranges, active asking PPSF sits at or below the recent sold range. That is unusual. In most markets, active sellers ask above recent solds and negotiation closes the gap. Here, asks have been entering at or just below where comparable homes have been clearing.
Worthington Realty Market Lens
The metrics below come from address-level analysis across all five cities. Estero’s row is highlighted. These metrics surface conditions that standard market reports do not capture. They show how many active listings have already failed to sell once before. They also show how long relisted homes ultimately take to clear and where active asking prices sit relative to recent sold prices.
| City | Competitive Months of Supply | Re-list Rate | Ask-Bid Gap (PPSF%) | Pending-to-Active Ratio | First-Attempt Median DOM | Relist Combined Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | 2.7 | 28.1% | 5.1% | 18.5% | 54 | 249 |
| Cape Coral | 2.7 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 21.1% | 51 | 246 |
| Estero | 2.0 | 23.0% | 5.7% | 25.4% | 59 | 258 |
| Bonita Springs | 2.4 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 56 | 258 |
| Naples | 2.7 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 56 | 252 |
Source: FGCMLS via Stellar MLS. Single-month data for Pending-to-Active Ratio. Re-list Rate, Ask-Bid Gap, DOM split, and Competitive Months of Supply use a 4-month sold population against the current active snapshot.
Closed Comparables Are Setting the Pace in Estero Featured Communities
The six Worthington-tracked Estero communities span a wide product range, from Bella Terra’s villas at a $263,000 median to The Place at Corkscrew’s $709,000 single-family closings. The 2.0-month citywide Competitive Inventory figure shows up clearly in the community-level data. Five of six communities posted months of supply between 1.3 and 3.3 and pending-to-active ratios from 45.5% to 133.3%.
Bella Terra
- Active Listings: 21
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 38
- Homes Pending: 11
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 52.4%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 23.8%
- Months of Inventory: 2.2
- Median Sold Price: $378,500
- Sellers Received: 96.9% of asking price
Bella Terra has tight supply-demand conditions at 2.2 months of supply and a 52.4% pending-to-active ratio. Over the past 4 months, the closed pool of 38 sales split cleanly. The Bella Terra core saw 31 closings at a $455,000 median over 59 days. Barletta added 7 villa closings at a $263,000 median over 53 days. Currently active listings reflect the same split: 19 Bella Terra core listings at a $479,900 median ask (modestly above the cleared range) and 2 Barletta villas at $265,000. The 23.8% relist share is moderate, and the 96.9% sold-to-list ratio confirms buyers are paying close to ask when listings are priced accurately. Sellers who price within 3 to 5% of recent Bella Terra core sales typically have buyers within two months. Listings reaching for a number above that range are accumulating days on the market.
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Cascades at Estero
- Active Listings: 11
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 20
- Homes Pending: 5
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 45.5%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 9.1%
- Months of Inventory: 2.2
- Median Sold Price: $422,500
- Sellers Received: 95.9% of asking price
Cascades at Estero has a strong first-attempt pricing pattern: only 1 of 11 currently active listings has previously failed to sell. Pair that with a 45.5% pending-to-active ratio and a 26-day median time to sell across 20 closings over the past 4 months. This 55-plus community is converting accurately priced product quickly. The closed median of $422,500 and active median ask of $455,000 are reasonably aligned, with most sales clearing between $370,000 and $446,000. With only 20 closings, a single sale can move the community figures. Buyers and sellers should rely on recent sales of the specific floor plan. Inventory turns over fast here. Correctly priced listings clear in about four weeks, and buyers face minimal selection and almost no negotiating room.
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Grandezza
- Active Listings: 18
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 22
- Homes Pending: 11
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 61.1%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 33.3%
- Months of Inventory: 3.3
- Median Sold Price: $645,000
- Sellers Received: 94.8% of asking price
Grandezza’s homes range from coach homes to large estates, and the pricing varies sharply by sub-community. Sabal Palm coach homes account for 8 of 18 currently active listings at a $381,500 median ask. Over the past 4 months, Sabal Palm also produced 7 of 22 closings at a $299,000 median, the lower-priced sub-community in this golf community. Savona had 4 closings at a $731,250 median in 27 days, Villa Grande 4 at $889,000, and Grande Estates 2 at $1,125,000 over just 6 days median. The community-wide closed median of $645,000 reflects this blend. The 18 currently active listings show a $427,450 median ask weighted toward the lower price points. A 33.3% relist share confirms the pricing challenge here. Pricing across a community spanning $220,000 to $1,300,000 closings requires careful sub-community-specific reference points, particularly above $700,000.
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Stoneybrook
- Active Listings: 13
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 20
- Homes Pending: 6
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 46.2%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 15.4%
- Months of Inventory: 2.6
- Median Sold Price: $352,500
- Sellers Received: 96.8% of asking price
Stoneybrook’s numbers read clean this cycle: 2.6 months of supply, a 46.2% pending-to-active ratio, and a 15.4% relist share. Recent closings totaled 20 over the past 4 months at a $352,500 median in 34 days. The 13 currently active listings have only been on the market a median of 29 days. These appear to be newer listings entering at the higher end of the community’s price range. Active asks run from $265,000 to $774,000, while the closed pool was weighted toward 2-bedroom and 2+den smaller floor plans. Buyers seeking lower-priced condo and villa product should move deliberately given the limited active selection. Single-family product offers more current options.
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Verdana Village
- Active Listings: 26
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 38
- Homes Pending: 22
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 84.6%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 11.5%
- Months of Inventory: 2.7
- Median Sold Price: $585,000
- Sellers Received: 97.7% of asking price
An 84.6% pending-to-active ratio and a 97.7% sold-to-list ratio describe strong seller conditions at Verdana Village this cycle. Twenty-two contracts pending against 26 currently active listings, combined with 38 closings over the past 4 months, signal a market clearing efficiently across most of the available supply. The 26 currently active listings show a $649,500 median ask against a $585,000 closed median. The $64,500 difference is one that correctly priced sellers are bridging through normal negotiation, given the 97.7% sold-to-list result. An 11.5% relist share means most active listings have not previously failed to sell. Sellers entering with a price tied to recent comps are well-positioned this cycle.
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The Place at Corkscrew
- Active Listings: 15
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 45
- Homes Pending: 20
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 133.3%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 26.7%
- Months of Inventory: 1.3
- Median Sold Price: $709,000
- Sellers Received: 96.8% of asking price
The Place at Corkscrew has more contracts pending than currently active listings this cycle: 20 pending against 15 active. That produces a 133.3% pending-to-active ratio and just 1.3 months of supply. Forty-five closings over the past 4 months settled at a $709,000 median in 70 days, and the 15 currently active listings show a $750,000 median ask. The $41,000 difference and the 96.8% sold-to-list ratio together indicate buyers and sellers reaching agreement through normal negotiation. The 26.7% relist share is moderate. This is a strong pricing position for sellers; buyers should expect competition and minimal room to come in below recent comps.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Estero shows the strongest demand metrics in Southwest Florida. Pending sales are up 56.7% year over year, dollar volume up 28.0%, and months of supply down 45.2%. The Pending-to-Active Ratio at 25.4% is the highest in the region. Competitive Months of Supply of 2.0 is also the tightest. Expect competition on first-attempt listings and meaningful selection only at higher price points where active listings have entered below recent sold ranges.
The April sold-to-list ratio came in at 96.3%, meaning buyers are negotiating roughly 3.7% off the most recent listed price. The median relisted home sold at $49,950 (10.0%) below its original ask after roughly 8.6 months of combined market exposure.
Estero closes around 175 homes per month, where a few high or low sales can swing the figure. The single-month median of $532,500 (down 3.6%) reflects a slightly different closing mix than April 2025. The three-month rolling median of $490,000 is a more stable read. PPSF declined 10.2% year over year, suggesting some softening at the per-square-foot level alongside the mix effect.
First-attempt listings priced right and presented well sold in a median of 59 days. Relisted homes that eventually sold took 258 days combined across all attempts, roughly 4.4 times longer than first-attempt sales.
Estero led the region on pending growth, dollar-volume growth, and months-of-supply compression in April. It also posted the lowest Re-list Rate (23.0%) and the tightest Competitive Months of Supply (2.0).
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Final Thoughts
April closed with Estero leading Southwest Florida on demand growth, supply compression, and seller pricing discipline. The combination of a low Re-list Rate, the tightest Competitive Inventory in the region, and a negative active-vs-sold PPSF spread at the higher price points tells a single story. Estero sellers have been entering the market at prices closely tied to recent sold comparables. The negative spread above $750K confirms it, with active listings running below recent sold prices.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, negotiating room is concentrated in the smaller pool of 44 returning listings without a price reduction. First-attempt listings are selling close to asking price in 59 days. For sellers, pricing within 3 to 5% of recent comparable sales is delivering buyers within roughly two months at the current pace.
The Worthington team works with buyers and sellers across Estero communities every week. That includes Bella Terra, Verdana Village, and The Place at Corkscrew, the Corkscrew Corridor, and the broader Estero area. Reading the data is one part of the work. Using it to value a specific home or write a specific offer is what we do alongside our clients.
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All data referenced in Worthington’s market reports draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS) unless otherwise noted.
May 2026 Southwest Florida Housing Market Report Series
- Southwest Florida Housing Market Update
- Fort Myers Housing Market Update
- Cape Coral Housing Market Update
- Bonita Springs Housing Market Update
- Naples Housing Market Update
Worthington MLS Search by City
Fort Myers | Cape Coral | Estero | Bonita Springs | Naples
For a full explanation of the indicators used in this report, see how Worthington Realty analyzes the Southwest Florida housing market.
