Estero Has the Tightest Competitive Supply in Southwest Florida and the Closing Numbers Are Proving It
Data reflects MLS records as of April 1, 2026. MLS figures may update as late transactions are recorded.
Estero is the clearest example in this month’s regional data of what happens when sellers price to current market conditions. Closed sales surged 26.7% year over year, showings per listing rose 48.3%, and the Competitive Inventory months of supply sits at 3.6 months, the tightest in the region. More than one in three active Estero listings currently has a buyer under contract.
The Southwest Florida regional hub report and city-level reports for all five markets are linked in the series index below. The Worthington Realty Estero Housing Market Report for April 2026 covers March 2026 transaction data for the Estero market within Southwest Florida’s five-city corridor. All data draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS).
Key Takeaways
- Closed sales rose 26.7% year over year to 166, the strongest growth rate of any city in Southwest Florida. Total dollar volume rose 28.9% to $91.0 million.
- Showings per listing rose 48.3% year over year to 4.3, the largest engagement increase in the region. The pending-to-active ratio of 34.9% means more than one in three active Estero listings has an accepted offer.
- Competitive MOI is 3.6 months, the tightest in Southwest Florida. Overall months of supply fell from 9.2 to 6.0 year over year.
- Estero home values are down roughly 10% per square foot from a year ago on both single-month (-9.9% to $246) and three-month rolling (-10.6% to $252) measures.
- The Re-list Rate of 24.9% is the lowest in Southwest Florida. Relisted homes that eventually sold accepted a median of $20,500 less than their original asking price, against first-attempt sellers who closed at $501,000 and 66 days median.
Estero Closed Sales Surged 26.7% Year Over Year, the Strongest Growth in Southwest Florida
Closed sales tell us what buyers decided weeks ago. Pending sales tell us what they are deciding right now.
Estero recorded 166 closed sales in March 2026, up from 131 a year ago, with total dollar volume of $91.0 million, up 28.9% year over year. Average transaction prices rose alongside the closed count. Dollar volume outpacing the closed sales gain confirms buyers are paying more per transaction, not just that cheaper homes are closing. New listings for March came in at 196, down 19.3% from 243 a year ago. Active inventory of 731 is down 20.5% year over year.
Pending sales at 175, up 11.5% from 157 a year ago, are reinforced by a showing rate of 4.3 per listing, up 48.3% year over year. That showing rate is the most striking behavioral signal in the regional data this month. Buyers are not just browsing Estero inventory; they are touring it at a dramatically higher rate than a year ago. When showing activity rises this sharply without a comparable increase in active listings, homes tend to sell faster in the months ahead for correctly priced sellers.
What Is Not Yet Visible in the Active Count
Shadow inventory in Estero — listings that expired, were withdrawn, or were cancelled in the past 12 months without selling and without coming back to market — totals approximately 757, somewhat larger than the city’s entire current active count. These are sellers who tested the market, did not find a buyer, and stepped back. That pool is relevant context: the tight supply picture can shift if those sellers decide to try again, which tends to happen when they feel conditions have improved in their favor.
Mortgage Rates as of April 2, 2026
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.46% as of April 2, 2026, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, down from 6.64% a year ago but up sharply from around 5.90% in late February. Estero has a meaningful share of cash buyers, particularly in the luxury golf and lake communities, and cash buyers are not directly affected by rate changes the same way. The financed buyer segment, active in Bella Terra, Stoneybrook, and the sub-$500,000 tier, is more exposed to the recent rise — rates have climbed nearly 50 basis points in five weeks heading into April.
Estero Home Values Are Down About 10% Per Square Foot Year Over Year
Price per square foot normalizes for home size. Median price moves when the mix of homes closing changes, even when underlying values have not.
Estero home values are down roughly 10% per square foot from a year ago, regardless of which figure you use. The median sale price, nearly flat at $467,500, is partly because more larger homes closed this month — not a sign that values held up.
Median sold PPSF fell from $273 to $246 year over year, a 9.9% decline on a single-month basis. Because Estero’s monthly transaction volume is lower than Fort Myers, Cape Coral, or Naples, single-month PPSF figures carry higher variance. The three-month rolling PPSF, which smooths that variance, shows a 10.6% decline from $282 to $252. Both figures tell the same directional story.
Median single-month sale price came in at $467,500, down 0.5% from $470,000 a year ago. The near-flat median against a 10% PPSF decline is because slightly larger homes made up a higher share of March closings — larger homes push the median price up even when per-square-foot values fall. Dollar volume of $91.0 million was 28.9% above March 2025’s $70.6 million. More closings at roughly flat average prices produced significantly higher aggregate volume — a sign that more homes are selling, not that prices are rising.
The sold-to-list ratio in Estero for March 2026 is 96.1%, in line with the regional figure. Estero’s Ask-Bid Gap of 6.1%, active listings at $270.85/sf against closings at $255.29/sf, is the second-narrowest in the region. The alignment between asking and transaction prices is precisely what allows homes here to sell faster than elsewhere in the region.
Estero’s 24.9% Relist Rate Is the Lowest in Southwest Florida
The Re-list Rate measures what share of current listings have already failed to sell once. It is a behavioral signal telling us how sellers are responding to current conditions.
Estero’s Re-list Rate of 24.9% is the lowest in Southwest Florida, and the city’s narrower Ask-Bid Gap and faster absorption are consistent with that reading. A pricing culture better calibrated to current market conditions produces fewer failed first attempts.
What Relisting Costs Estero Sellers
Estero sellers who priced accurately the first time walked away with a median of $64,000 more than those who had to relist.
For homes that eventually sold after relisting, the median original asking price was $457,500 and the median final sale price was $437,000, a $20,500 difference. First-attempt homes that sold closed at a median of $501,000 and 66 days. The contrast: relist sellers in Estero absorbed a $20,500 reduction from their original ask, added the carrying costs of a second listing period, and ultimately closed with substantially less than correctly priced first-attempt sellers.
Relisted active listings in Estero have accumulated a median of 76 days in their current attempt, slightly above the 66-day first-attempt closed DOM. These homes are already past the point where correctly priced listings typically find buyers in this market.
Estero Has the Tightest Competitive Supply in Southwest Florida at 3.6 Months
Competitive Inventory removes listings that have been sitting unsold for 90-plus days, leaving only the homes a well-priced seller actually competes against.
Estero three-tier months-of-supply breakdown, March 2026:
| Tier | Active Count | MOI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall MOI (all active listings) | 731 | 6.0 |
| Stale-stripped MOI (removing listings over 180 days) | 621 | 5.4 |
| Competitive MOI (removing listings over 90 days) | 415 | 3.6 |
Based on an average of 115.1 closed sales per month over the past 12 months.
What This Means for Correctly Priced Sellers
At 3.6 months, Estero’s Competitive MOI is the tightest in Southwest Florida. A correctly priced Estero seller competes against 415 listings, less than two-thirds of the 731 in the active count. The pending-to-active ratio of 34.9%, up from approximately 17.1% a year ago, means roughly twice as many homes are going under contract relative to available inventory as there were a year ago.
Florida Insurance and the Estero Transaction Environment
Estero’s interior golf and lake communities generally carry lower flood exposure than coastal inventory elsewhere in Southwest Florida. Properties along the Estero Bay corridor and in designated flood zones do carry meaningful insurance considerations. Buyers who receive insurance quotes during due diligence that exceed expectations occasionally use that information to renegotiate or exit contracts. Sellers in flood-zone communities benefit from obtaining current insurance estimates before listing and providing them proactively.
Core Market Metrics (March 2026 Data)
| City | Median Sold Price | Price/SF | Active Listings | Months of Supply | Sold-to-List | Closed Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $335,000 | $204 | 3,402 | 7.5 | 96.1% | -9.5% |
| Cape Coral | $355,000 | $207 | 2,977 | 6.0 | 97.4% | -14.5% |
| Estero | $467,500 | $246 | 731 | 6.0 | 96.1% | +26.7% |
| Bonita Springs | $580,000 | $309 | 1,172 | 7.8 | 95.1% | +11.4% |
| Naples | $587,500 | $326 | 6,124 | 8.7 | 95.4% | +11.7% |
| SWFL Region | $410,000 | $243 | 20,656 | 7.7 | 96.1% | +2.4% |
Worthington Market Lens (March 2026 Data)
| City | Competitive MOI | Re-list Rate | Ask-Bid Gap | Pending-to-Active | First-Attempt DOM | Relist DOM (current attempt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | 4.2 | 29.7% | 5.3% | 25.2% | 54 days | 89 days |
| Cape Coral | 3.5 | 26.3% | 15.3% | 29.6% | 54 days | 77 days |
| Estero | 3.6 | 24.9% | 6.1% | 34.9% | 66 days | 76 days |
| Bonita Springs | 4.2 | 28.3% | 13.8% | 28.1% | 61 days | 112 days |
| Naples | 4.7 | 27.7% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 61 days | 90 days |
Source: FGCMLS via Stellar MLS. March 2026 data. Competitive MOI uses active listings under 90 days; average closed sales per month over the past 12 months. Relist DOM reflects current-attempt days only. Estero median price figures: three-month rolling average ($252/sf, $575,000 median) is more reliable given lower monthly transaction volume.
Worthington’s Featured Estero Communities
Worthington Realty features six Estero communities with dedicated IDX search pages and monthly tracking. The Place at Corkscrew and Bella Terra are running the tightest supply of any communities in Southwest Florida this cycle. Grandezza’s 42.9% relist rate shows how difficult accurate pricing is in a community whose transactions ranged from $220,000 to $1.3 million in 120 days — the right reference point depends entirely on which sub-community you are in.
Bella Terra
- Active Listings: 27
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 37
- Homes Pending: 15
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 55.6%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 37.0%
- Months of Inventory: 2.9
- Median Sold Price: $390,000
- Sellers Received: 97.2% of asking price
At 2.9 months of inventory and a 55.6% pending-to-active ratio, Bella Terra is selling homes faster than any other Estero community this cycle. The active median list of $519,000 runs well above the $390,000 median sold, because the types of homes currently for sale are very different from those that closed: 15 of 27 active listings are priced above $500,000, while the 37 closings over the past 120 days were concentrated in 2-to-3-bedroom units and Barletta villas that cleared between $220,000 and $345,000. Thirteen closings did reach the $500,000-plus tier at a $600,000 median. A relist rate of 37.0% signals that some sellers in that upper range are pricing into thinner demand, where sales in that specific price tier are the relevant benchmark rather than the community’s overall pace.
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Cascades at Estero
- Active Listings: 13
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 15
- Homes Pending: 6
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 46.2%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 15.4%
- Months of Inventory: 3.5
- Median Sold Price: $399,000
- Sellers Received: 96.2% of asking price
With 15 closings over the past four months, Cascades at Estero is operating at the lower end of its typical sample size — this 55-plus community regularly produces transaction volumes where individual sales can shift the median meaningfully, and the $399,000 figure should be read in that context. Within those limits, the market reads as steady: a 46.2% pending-to-active ratio, 3.5 months of inventory, and a 26-day median closed DOM point to a community where correctly priced homes are moving quickly. The active median list of $439,900 sits modestly above the cleared range. Sellers who price at or near the community midpoint are converting in under 30 days; those testing the $450,000 to $480,000 range are facing a thinner buyer pool.
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Grandezza
- Active Listings: 21
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 22
- Homes Pending: 7
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 33.3%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 42.9%
- Months of Inventory: 3.8
- Median Sold Price: $615,000
- Sellers Received: 94.5% of asking price
The Grandezza active pool reflects a different product tier than the closed data. Eight of 21 active listings are in Sabal Palm, the community’s condo and coach home sub-community, at a median ask of $384,500. The past 120 days of closings were led by Savona, Villa Grande, and Grande Estates, where 9 transactions settled between $605,000 and $1,300,000, pulling the community’s closed median to $615,000 while the active median list reads $429,900. A relist rate of 42.9% is the highest in Estero, reflecting how difficult accurate pricing is across a community whose closed transactions ranged from $220,000 to $1,300,000 this cycle. Buyers evaluating premium single-family homes here should build their analysis from Savona and Villa Grande closings specifically, where the price logic differs substantially from the community-wide figures.
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Stoneybrook
- Active Listings: 15
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 19
- Homes Pending: 3
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 20.0%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 13.3%
- Months of Inventory: 3.2
- Median Sold Price: $355,000
- Sellers Received: 96.3% of asking price
Stoneybrook’s 19 closings over the past four months sit at the lower end of this community’s typical volume — the $355,000 median sold is directionally useful rather than precise. The more telling story is the product type divide. The 19 closings were weighted toward 2-bedroom condos and 2+den villas, with 14 transactions settling between $225,000 and $429,000. All 15 active listings are single-family homes priced from $279,000 to $785,000 with a median ask of $635,000. These two tiers are not competing for the same buyers. Buyers focused on the condo and villa product should move deliberately: that tier was clearing in a 33-day median DOM, and comparable inventory is limited in the current active pool.
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Verdana Village
- Active Listings: 38
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 34
- Homes Pending: 10
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 26.3%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 15.8%
- Months of Inventory: 4.5
- Median Sold Price: $613,000
- Sellers Received: 97.4% of asking price
At 4.5 months of inventory and a 26.3% pending-to-active ratio, Verdana Village is a balanced market where pricing discipline determines outcomes. The median sold of $613,000 and the active median list of $654,500 are modestly misaligned, but the 97.4% sold-to-list ratio — the strongest in Estero this cycle — shows that sellers who price accurately are converting efficiently. The 82-day median closed DOM sets realistic expectations: well-priced inventory still requires patience before the right buyer engages. Sellers who come within 3% of market value are consistently generating near-full-ask results at closing.
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The Place at Corkscrew
- Active Listings: 25
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 37
- Homes Pending: 21
- Pending-to-Active Ratio: 84.0%
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 24.0%
- Months of Inventory: 2.7
- Median Sold Price: $709,000
- Sellers Received: 96.4% of asking price
An 84.0% pending-to-active ratio is the defining number at The Place at Corkscrew: 21 homes are under contract against 25 active listings, leaving just 2.7 months of supply. The median sold price of $709,000 and the active median list of $739,000 are as closely aligned as any community in the Estero group this cycle, confirming the market is clearing near asking price rather than producing the active-versus-sold divide seen elsewhere. Sellers received a median 96.4% of asking across 37 closings. This is the tightest supply-demand balance in Estero right now, and sellers who have been timing their entry have the conditions they were waiting for.
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Frequently Asked Questions About the Estero Housing Market
Competitive MOI of 3.6 months is the lowest in Southwest Florida, well-priced listings are generating 4.3 showings and selling in 66 days, and rates remain below year-ago levels. Buyers are competing in a market that has shifted toward sellers at correctly priced listings.
Low supply, a showing rate up 48.3% year over year, and an Ask-Bid Gap of just 6.1% — the narrowest in the region — produce faster sales than markets where the pricing spread is wider.
Median sold PPSF on a three-month rolling basis is $252, down 10.6% from $282 a year ago. From the 2022 peak, PPSF is off approximately 15-20% depending on community, with golf-access and lake-view homes retaining value better.
The Place at Corkscrew and Bella Terra carry the least inventory relative to demand. Cascades at Estero and Stoneybrook offer reliable value at the entry tier.
Estero has a tighter Competitive MOI (3.6 vs. 4.2) and a narrower Ask-Bid Gap (6.1% vs. 13.8%). Bonita Springs offers more selection at the luxury tier but carries more pricing uncertainty.
Final Thoughts on the Estero Housing Market
The Estero housing market in March 2026 is the clearest story in the Southwest Florida series this month: fewer homes for sale and more buyers closing are most clearly showing up in the data here. The 26.7% year-over-year surge in closings, the 48% jump in showings per listing, and just 3.6 months of supply for a correctly priced seller all point to a market that has moved out of the slow conditions of 2024 and into something much closer to balance. For sellers in communities where this is playing out, the window to price confidently and expect a prompt result is open. For buyers, the window to choose from meaningful selection at realistic prices is narrower than it was 12 months ago.
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April 2026 Southwest Florida Housing Market Report Series
- Southwest Florida Housing Market Report
- Fort Myers Housing Market Report
- Cape Coral Housing Market Report
- Estero Housing Market Report ← You are here
- Bonita Springs Housing Market Report
- Naples Housing Market Report
IDX Searches Fort Myers homes for sale | Cape Coral homes for sale | Estero homes for sale | Bonita Springs homes for sale | Naples homes for sale
All data referenced in Worthington’s market reports draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS) unless otherwise noted. Read more about how we calculate these metrics.
