Southwest Florida Supply Has Fallen to 6.1 Months

Months of supply compressed from 9.2 to 6.1 as pending sales rose 19.2% year over year.

Southwest Florida entered summer with fewer homes for sale and more buyers under contract. That combination is playing out very differently city to city: Estero led closing growth, Cape Coral carried the strongest pending ratios, Fort Myers posted the highest Re-list Rate, Bonita Springs showed the widest Ask-Bid Gap, and Naples extended its closing-growth streak to 13 consecutive months, the longest active streak among the five featured cities.

Key Takeaways

• Pending sales rose 19.2% year over year to 2,770 in June, and closed sales rose 3.2%, the region’s 13th straight month of growth.
• Active inventory fell 22.6% to 16,811 listings, and months of supply compressed to 6.1, down from 9.2 a year ago, the tightest regional read so far in 2026.
• Months of supply peaked regionally between February and April 2025. Naples and Bonita Springs bottomed on price four to five months later and have recovered since; Fort Myers’s price low point is only now, fifteen months after its own supply peak, with no recovery yet.
• Across the five featured cities, 17.5% of June’s closed sales had previously relisted, with a $54,500 median original-ask-to-sale difference, and Competitive Inventory ranges from 1.4 months in Estero to 2.1 months in Cape Coral.
• Bonita Springs’s closed sales matched last June exactly, ending an eleven-month growth streak without an actual decline, while Naples and Bonita Springs were effectively tied for the largest relist cost among the five featured cities at approximately $75,000 per home.

Regional Snapshot at a Glance

Here is how the five featured cities compare with the broader Southwest Florida market this month. All year-over-year (YoY) columns compare against June 2025. A negative price or price-per-square-foot change means prices fell. A negative inventory or supply change means fewer homes were available than a year ago.

City	Median Sold Price	Median YoY	Price/SF	Price/ SF YoY	Active Listings	Active YoY	Months Supply	Months Supply YoY	Sold-to-List	Closed Sales	Closed YoY
Fort Myers	$330,000	-7.0%	$194	-6.7%	2,767	-23.8%	6.0	-31.8%	95.9%	500	+3.5%
Cape Coral	$375,000	+3.0%	$217	+0.5%	2,631	-28.1%	5.2	-36.6%	97.8%	531	+3.7%
Estero	$525,000	-5.4%	$245	-6.1%	518	-27.8%	4.1	-41.4%	95.7%	123	+26.8%
Bonita Springs	$580,000	+3.4%	$312	+0.3%	860	-29.3%	5.5	-43.3%	96.1%	136	0.0%
Naples	$619,000	+4.9%	$344	+2.7%	4,582	-23.1%	6.1	-37.1%	95.1%	783	+9.5%
Southwest Florida	$410,000	+2.5%	$233	-1.7%	16,811	-22.6%	6.1	-33.7%	96.3%	2,848	+3.2%

Source: FGCMLS. Single-month data unless otherwise noted. Sold-to-list uses most recent list price at time of contract.

Note: The five featured cities’ active listings sum to 11,358, below the region-wide total of 16,811 shown above. Southwest Florida figures cover the full FGCMLS footprint, which includes areas outside the five cities featured in this series, such as Lehigh Acres and Marco Island. This row is calculated from the full regional dataset, not an average of the five city rows above.

Closed-Sales Growth Varies Sharply by City

Closed sales tell us what buyers decided weeks ago. Pending sales tell us what they are deciding right now, and June’s pending count points to continued momentum ahead.

The region closed 2,848 sales in June, up 3.2% from 2,761 a year ago and the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Dollar volume rose 4.9% to just under $2.0 billion. Pending sales, the forward-looking signal, climbed 19.2% year over year to 2,770, and every one of the five featured cities posted a pending increase this month.

That regional closed-sales figure masks real divergence underneath. Estero’s closings jumped 26.8% year over year, the sharpest gain among the five featured cities. Naples grew 9.5%. Cape Coral (+3.7%) and Fort Myers (+3.5%) both extended their own growth streaks. Bonita Springs closed 136 sales in June, exactly matching June 2025’s total, a 0.0% change that ends its eleven-month streak of year-over-year growth without registering an actual decline. Pending-to-Active Ratios and pending contracts relative to recent monthly sales vary widely by city too. Cape Coral’s pending pool equals 29.7% of its active inventory and 135.2% of its trailing three-month closing pace, the strongest absorption signal among the five featured cities, while Bonita Springs sits lowest on both measures at 20.3% and 84.8%.

Pending sales increased across all five featured cities, though absorption remained uneven. For Bonita Springs specifically, a flat June after eleven months of growth is worth watching next cycle rather than treating as a turn.

Mortgage Rates Are Up From Their February Low, With a Pullback This Week

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.43% for the week ending July 2, 2026, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, down 6 basis points from the week before and down 24 basis points from a year ago. That year-over-year comparison looks favorable, but it understates how much ground rates have given back recently. Rates fell steadily through most of 2025 and into early 2026, reaching a 52-week low of 5.98% in late February. Since then, they have reversed, climbing to 6.46% by early April and holding in a choppy 6.23% to 6.53% range through June, roughly 45 basis points above that February low. This week’s decline to 6.43% is a welcome data point, but the pattern since April has moved both directions week to week, so one week does not yet confirm a new trend.

At the region’s $410,000 median price, a buyer putting 20% down and financing $328,000 at the current rate would carry a principal-and-interest payment of about $2,058 a month, before property taxes, insurance, or HOA dues, all of which vary meaningfully across Southwest Florida’s five featured cities.

Active Inventory and New Listings Both Declined

Active listings count every home currently for sale, fresh listings, relists, and stale inventory that has sat unsold for months, all counted equally. When relist activity is high, the new-listing count can overstate how much genuinely fresh supply is entering the market.

Active inventory across the full Southwest Florida market fell 22.6% to 16,811, while new listings declined 9.9% to 3,302. Pending sales rose 19.2%, leaving buyers with less selection and a larger contract pipeline than a year ago.

For sellers, active competition is thinner than a year ago, while pending sales are also higher.

Months of Supply Has Compressed to Its Tightest Read This Year

Months of supply answers a specific question: if no new listings entered the market today, how many months would it take to sell through current inventory at the current pace? Six months is the traditional benchmark for a balanced market, though in Southwest Florida, season and price tier both matter as much as the number itself.

Regional months of supply fell to 6.1, down from 9.2 a year ago, a compression of more than three months of inventory in twelve months. Every one of the five cities tightened. Estero is the tightest at 4.1 months, Naples and the region both sit at 6.1.

Supply Has Been Tightening for Over a Year, and Price Has Responded Very Differently by City

That compression has been building for well over a year, not just this month. Regional supply peaked between February and April 2025, and every city in this series has tightened almost every month since. What happened to price after that peak is where the five cities genuinely diverge.

In Naples and Bonita Springs, price per square foot bottomed four to five months after supply peaked and has been recovering ever since, up 3% to 7% from the low. Estero’s picture is noisier: price first bottomed around the same time, partially recovered, then slipped to a second, comparably low point as recently as March 2026, before turning up only in the past two months. Cape Coral’s price took much longer to turn, thirteen months, but has also started recovering. Fort Myers is the outlier: its price per square foot low point is this month, fifteen months after its own supply peak, with no recovery yet. Every other city in this series has already turned the corner. Fort Myers hasn’t.

Competitive Inventory Filters Out What Isn’t Real Competition

Not every active listing represents real competition for a well-priced seller. Competitive Inventory strips out two categories: Stale Inventory, listings sitting 180 or more days without a reduction of at least 3%, and stubborn relists, homes that came back on the market at less than 3% below their prior asking price. What remains is the supply a properly priced listing actually competes against. Across the five cities, Competitive Inventory months of supply ranges from 1.4 months in Estero to 2.1 months in Cape Coral, a fraction of the overall figures and a clearer signal of how tight the market for well-priced homes really is right now.

Relisted Homes Carry Longer Market Exposure and Larger Price Differences

In practical terms, these are homes that were listed before, left the MLS without a sale, and later came back on the market. Worthington’s Re-list Rate measures the share of today’s active listings that also had an expired, withdrawn, or terminated listing during the preceding 12 months. It is a behavioral signal. It tells us how sellers as a group are responding to current conditions, not just what those conditions are. One mechanical detail matters here too: when a home relists, its days-on-market counter resets to zero. Total market exposure can therefore be understated unless the prior listing history is reviewed. A home relisting at 15 days on market may have actually spent 200-plus days on the market during a prior attempt.

Re-list Rates range from 20.9% in Estero to 25.8% in Fort Myers, meaning roughly one in four to one in five active listings across the five featured cities had a prior failed listing attempt during the trailing 12 months. Across the five featured cities, 17.5% of homes that closed in June had relisted before finding a buyer. The median relisted home sold for $54,500 below the original asking price from its prior listing attempt, after a combined 237 days on market across both listing attempts, compared with a median 55 days for first-attempt homes that sold at $450,000. These five-city medians combine all property types and price tiers; segment-level results may differ. By city, that per-home dollar difference ranges from $34,900 in Cape Coral to $75,000 in Naples, with Bonita Springs close behind at $74,900.

Price Per Square Foot Diverges From Median Price This Month

Median sale price versus price per square foot tell different stories. Median sale price moves when the mix of homes closing changes. More luxury closings push it up, more entry-level closings push it down, even when nothing has actually changed in underlying values. Price per square foot normalizes for home size, making it the more reliable read on what is happening to values.

Regional median sale price rose 2.5% year over year to $410,000, while price per square foot fell 1.7% to $233. The divergence indicates that a different mix of expensive and lower-priced homes closing in June, not a change in underlying values, contributed to the higher regional median sale price. City results were less uniform. Fort Myers (‑6.7%) and Estero (‑6.1%) recorded broader price softening, genuine value declines, while Naples (+2.7%), Cape Coral (+0.5%), and Bonita Springs (+0.3%) ranged from stable to higher on price per square foot. Dollar volume rose in every city this month, meaning transaction volume is growing even where price per square foot is not.

What Buyers Are Actually Paying Relative to What Sellers Are Asking

The sale-to-list ratio compares what homes sold for to what they were asking at the time of contract. Worthington uses the most recent list price at time of contract, not the original asking price, so this figure does not capture the full distance between a seller’s original expectation and the final sale price. The Re-list analysis measures that distance directly, comparing the original asking price from a prior listing attempt against the eventual sale price for the same property. The Ask-Bid Gap measures something different: how current active asking price per square foot compares with recent sold price per square foot across the broader market, not a single property’s history.

The regional sale-to-list ratio held at 96.3% in June, essentially unchanged from 96.0% a year ago, indicating negotiating conditions have held steady at the point of contract. The Ask-Bid Gap, which compares current active asking price per square foot against trailing 120-day sold price per square foot, gives the market-wide pricing read. A positive gap means current listings are asking more per square foot than recent sales closed at; a negative gap means they are asking less. Bonita Springs carries the widest Ask-Bid Gap among the five featured cities at 18.6%, meaning its median active asking price per square foot sits substantially above its trailing-120-day median sold price per square foot. Cape Coral (11.3%) and Naples (11.2%) sit close together in the middle. Estero’s Ask-Bid Gap of 4.0% is the tightest among the five featured cities, indicating asking prices there are already close to where the market is transacting.

Shadow Inventory as of July 1

These homes are not currently listed for sale. Worthington tracks them because some may return and add future supply. In this report, shadow inventory consists of properties that left the market without a recorded sale through expiration, withdrawal, or termination and had not returned to active, pending, or closed status by July 1. Some may return to the market; others may not.

Each city report in this series carries a dated, city-specific shadow inventory read this month. Across the five featured cities, 2,028 properties expired, withdrew, or terminated in just the last 30 days, and only 217 of those, 10.7%, had returned to active status, gone pending, or sold by July 1. The remaining 1,811 had not returned to active, pending, or closed status by July 1.

Insurance Conditions to Verify Before Offering

Florida’s homeowners insurance market has been recovering, with average requested rate increases easing from roughly 22% two years ago to under 1% today, though coastal and waterfront properties can still see steeper renewals. That easing has removed some of the transaction friction insurance created at the height of the crisis, but buyers should still confirm coverage costs before writing an offer rather than at closing, particularly for older or waterfront homes.

Worthington Market Lens

The Worthington Market Lens compares the five featured cities using the same address-level measures. Lower Competitive Inventory means less serious competition for a well-priced seller. A smaller Ask-Bid Gap means asking prices are closer to recent sales. A higher Re-list Rate means more current listings have already been through an earlier listing attempt. A higher Pending-to-Active Ratio means more homes are under contract relative to the number for sale.

City	Competitive Inventory (Months)	Re-list Rate	Ask-Bid Gap (Price/SF)	Pending-to-Active Ratio	Median Days to Contract, First Attempt	Median Total Days, Relisted
Fort Myers	2.0	25.8%	5.7%	22.0%	57	229.5
Cape Coral	2.1	22.4%	11.3%	29.7%	46.5	216
Estero	1.4	20.9%	4.0%	28.3%	58.5	253
Bonita Springs	1.5	24.3%	18.6%	20.3%	63	262
Naples	1.8	23.4%	11.2%	22.9%	60	241

Source: FGCMLS. Full definitions for each metric are in Worthington’s market methodology. Worthington’s address-level metrics come from a property-level MLS export, a separate dataset from the published monthly counts used for the overall figures, so the active total can differ slightly.

City Snapshots

Fort Myers Housing Market June 2026

• Active Listings: 2,767 (-23.8% YoY)
• Sold (Last 120 Days): 2,273
• Months of Supply: 6.0 overall / 2.0 Competitive Inventory (-31.8% YoY on the overall figure)
• Median Sold Price: $330,000 (‑7.0% YoY)
• Sellers Received: 95.9% of final list price (+0.6 pts YoY)
• Re-list Rate: 25.8%
• Pending-to-Active Ratio: 22.0%

Fort Myers carries the highest Re-list Rate among the five featured cities at 25.8%, and 61.8% of those relisted homes came back with at least a 3% price cut. Price per square foot fell 6.7% year over year, a decline sharp enough to reflect real value softening.

The Competitive Inventory filter reduces the calculated supply from 6.0 to 2.0 months once stale and stubborn-relist inventory is removed. Relisted sales showed a $43,900 median original-ask-to-sale difference and 5.7 additional months of median exposure. Closings still extended a 10-month growth streak through that pricing friction.

Read the full Fort Myers housing market report. | Search Fort Myers homes for sale.

Cape Coral Housing Market June 2026

• Active Listings: 2,631 (-28.1% YoY)
• Sold (Last 120 Days): 2,287
• Months of Supply: 5.2 overall / 2.1 Competitive Inventory (-36.6% YoY on the overall figure)
• Median Sold Price: $375,000 (+3.0% YoY)
• Sellers Received: 97.8% of final list price (+0.3 pts YoY)
• Re-list Rate: 22.4%
• Pending-to-Active Ratio: 29.7%

Cape Coral returned to year-over-year closing growth in June, with sales up 3.7%, consistent with what pending sales, showings, and a 97.8% sold-to-list ratio, the highest among the five featured cities, had already been signaling: buyer demand held up while closings lagged. It also had the highest Pending-to-Active Ratio at 29.7%, while pending contracts equaled 135.2% of its recent monthly closing pace.

The relist cost here is the smallest among the five featured cities at $34,900, and first-attempt listings sell fastest of anywhere in the series, a median 46.5 days. Even so, Competitive Inventory runs widest among the five cities at 2.1 months, meaning a larger share of Cape Coral’s active pool represents genuine, current competition rather than stale supply.

Read the full Cape Coral housing market report. | Search Cape Coral homes for sale.

Estero Housing Market June 2026

• Active Listings: 518 (-27.8% YoY)
• Sold (Last 120 Days): 675
• Months of Supply: 4.1 overall / 1.4 Competitive Inventory (-41.4% YoY on the overall figure)
• Median Sold Price: $525,000 (‑5.4% YoY)
• Sellers Received: 95.7% of final list price (+0.7 pts YoY)
• Re-list Rate: 20.9%
• Pending-to-Active Ratio: 28.3%

Estero posted the sharpest closed-sales growth among the five featured cities this month at 26.8% year over year, alongside the tightest Ask-Bid Gap (4.0%) and Competitive Inventory (1.4 months) of any city in the series. It also has the lowest Re-list Rate among the five featured cities at 20.9%, meaning a smaller share of its active inventory had a prior unsuccessful listing attempt during the trailing 12 months.

One anomaly persists beneath that strength. In the $750,000 to $1.5 million range, median active asking price per square foot sits 6.0% below median sold price per square foot, essentially unchanged from May’s -6.9% reading.

Read the full Estero housing market report. | Search Estero homes for sale.

Bonita Springs Housing Market June 2026

• Active Listings: 860 (-29.3% YoY)
• Sold (Last 120 Days): 817
• Months of Supply: 5.5 overall / 1.5 Competitive Inventory (-43.3% YoY on the overall figure)
• Median Sold Price: $580,000 (+3.4% YoY)
• Sellers Received: 96.1% of final list price (+1.4 pts YoY)
• Re-list Rate: 24.3%
• Pending-to-Active Ratio: 20.3%

Bonita Springs closed exactly as many homes in June as a year ago, ending an eleven-month growth streak with a flat result rather than a decline. The city’s blended 18.6% Ask-Bid Gap, widest among the five featured cities, is concentrated most heavily in the luxury tier. The median asking price per square foot of Bonita Springs luxury listings above $1.5 million sits 40.2% above the median sold price per square foot of recent luxury closings, more than double every other price band in the city.

Across all Bonita Springs relists, 67.0% returned at least 3% below their prior asking price, the highest correction share among the five featured cities. The relist cost runs $74,900 per home, effectively tied with Naples’s $75,000 for the widest among the five featured cities.

Read the full Bonita Springs housing market report. | Search Bonita Springs homes for sale.

Naples Housing Market June 2026

• Active Listings: 4,582 (-23.1% YoY)
• Sold (Last 120 Days): 3,749
• Months of Supply: 6.1 overall / 1.8 Competitive Inventory (-37.1% YoY on the overall figure)
• Median Sold Price: $619,000 (+4.9% YoY)
• Sellers Received: 95.1% of final list price (+0.1 pts YoY)
• Re-list Rate: 23.4%
• Pending-to-Active Ratio: 22.9%

Naples posted genuine appreciation this month, with median price and price per square foot rising together. It and Bonita Springs were effectively tied for the widest relist dollar cost among the five featured cities, at approximately $75,000 per home.

The luxury tier above $1.5 million carries a 16.8% Ask-Bid Gap, more than four times the mid-range tier’s 3.8%, and concentrates most of the city’s pricing misalignment. Naples carries 1,057 active luxury listings, the largest luxury inventory pool of any city in this series, and also extended its closing streak to 13 consecutive months, the longest active streak in the series.

Read the full Naples housing market report. | Search Naples homes for sale.

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The Bottom Line for Southwest Florida

Whether you are deciding when to list, how to price, or whether now is the right time to buy in Southwest Florida, the data points in a specific direction this month: less competition for sellers who price correctly, more urgency for buyers watching inventory shrink, and real variation from one city to the next in how that plays out. Worthington Realty helps homeowners across Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Estero, Bonita Springs, and Naples make sense of exactly this kind of moment. Most homeowners feel overwhelmed when it’s time to move. At Worthington Realty, we provide personalized guidance and clear communication so that you feel heard, valued, and confident in your decisions.

Search homes for sale across Southwest Florida | Contact the Worthington Realty team | Get notified when next month’s report publishes

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All data referenced in Worthington’s market reports draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS) unless otherwise noted.

Data reflects MLS records available as of July 1, 2026. Figures may update as late-reported transactions are entered.

How to read the data: Published active inventory and standard months of supply come from the monthly market statistics. Worthington’s Re-list Rate and Pending-to-Active Ratio use the address-matched property export, so their active denominators may differ slightly. Competitive Inventory uses the trailing three-month closing pace.

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Explore the June 2026 Southwest Florida Market Series

• Fort Myers housing market report
• Cape Coral housing market report
• Estero housing market report
• Bonita Springs housing market report
• Naples housing market report

Explore Homes for Sale and Learn About Living In: Fort Myers | Cape Coral | Estero | Bonita Springs | Naples

For a full explanation of the indicators used in this report, see how Worthington Realty analyzes the Southwest Florida housing market.