Pending Sales Surged 43.5% as Estero Posted the Tightest Competitive Supply in the Region
If any Southwest Florida market is approaching balance, Estero is it. Buyer demand surged this winter while inventory continued to tighten. Because Estero transacts at roughly one-third the volume of Fort Myers, Cape Coral, or Naples, this report uses rolling three-month data alongside single-month figures to smooth the variation that comes with a smaller sample. The gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers will pay narrowed to the smallest in the region. Newer construction dominates here, and it shows in the transaction data. Mortgage rates dropping below 6% for the first time in three and a half years helps at Estero’s price points, though a significant share of Southwest Florida transactions close in cash and are driven by other factors entirely. In Estero, accurately priced homes are going under contract faster than anywhere else in the region, and the community-level detail below explains where and why. For regional context, see the Southwest Florida housing market update.
Key Takeaways (TL;DR)
- Estero’s pending sales surged 43.5% year over year to 188 in the single-month data. Rolling three-month figures show a 29.1% increase, still the regional leader. The 36.3% pending-to-active ratio also leads the region.
- Competitive months of supply sits at 3.6, the tightest in the five-city area. Overall months of supply (6.3) matches Cape Coral, but Estero’s competitive segment and pending-to-active ratio both lead the region.
- The ask-bid gap in price per square foot is just 4.5% ($274 asking vs. $262 sold), the narrowest in the region, reflecting well-positioned listings.
- Verdana Village posted 2.8 months of supply with 47% of closings at or above asking price, the tightest community profile across all five city reports.
- Showings per listing jumped 36.7% year over year to 4.1, the second-highest reading in the region and the largest increase among the five cities.
Estero’s Demand Indicators Lead Every Other Southwest Florida Market
February 2026 showed a sharp increase in demand indicators across the Estero real estate market. The 43.5% surge in pending sales is the standout figure, but the supporting data is equally compelling: showings per listing rose 36.7%, closed sales increased 18.1%, and inventory fell 19.2%. That combination produced a 33.0% reduction in months of supply.
The Median Price Drop Requires Context
The 20.6% single-month median price decline from $535,000 to $425,000 looks dramatic. In a market that generates roughly 100 sales per month, a change in the mix of what closes can move the median substantially. February saw a higher concentration of smaller-format sales (2-bedroom and 2+den units) relative to last year’s mix, which included more of the 3+den and 4-bedroom closings that anchor the upper half of the price range. Price per square foot fell 14.0% to $252, a meaningful decline but one that has stabilized: the metric bottomed at $246 in July 2025 and has recovered $6 per square foot since. The upper quartile of Estero closings held closer to prior-year levels, which reinforces that the median move reflects composition rather than a broad collapse in values.
Smaller Market, Larger Swings
On a rolling three-month basis, closed sales rose 20.3% and pending contracts increased 29.1% year over year. Months of supply sits at 6.6, broadly consistent with the 6.3 single-month figure. The rolling median price declined 14.3% to $493,500 (vs. 20.6% in the single month), and price per square foot fell 12.2% to $258 (vs. 14.0%). The trends hold in both directions.
Estero’s Listing-Level Data Shows a Market Closer to Balance
With 760 active listings, 276 pending, and 439 sold in the past 120 days, the Estero real estate market operates at a ratio of roughly 1.7 active homes per recent sale. Among the five cities, only Cape Coral (1.9x) is closer to parity.
Relist Rates Are the Lowest in the Region
Of 760 active listings, 204 (26.8%) have a prior failure within the past 12 months. Returning sellers cut their asking price by a median of 6.2%. Among the 102 that eventually sold, the final price was $497,500 against an original ask of $579,750, a $51,200 gap requiring 236 total days on market. First-attempt sales closed in 69 days.
The Ask-Bid Gap Favors Accuracy
Active listings sit at $274 per square foot while sold homes closed at $262, a 4.5% gap that is the smallest in the region, meaning Estero sellers are setting expectations closer to reality than those in Cape Coral (13.3%), Bonita Springs (14.9%), or Naples (16.6%). When asking prices are closer to what buyers will pay, homes go under contract faster. That is exactly what is happening in Estero.
Effective Inventory Tells the Real Story
Overall months of supply reads 6.9. Remove stale and stubborn inventory, and it drops to 5.5. The competitive market, listings under 90 days that are either first-attempts or relists with a meaningful price reduction, shows just 3.6 months of supply. Fresh first-attempt listings carry a $545,000 median price and 27 median days on market. At 3.6 months of competitive supply, well-priced Estero listings face the least resistance in the region.
Newer Construction and Tighter Inventory Drive Stronger Outcomes in Estero Featured Communities
Community-level data across Estero shows transaction activity generally running closer to available inventory than in neighboring markets. Several communities here are operating below 5 months of supply, and the share of homes returning to market varies widely between neighborhoods. The through-line: newer construction is closing closer to asking price, while communities with older homes are seeing wider gaps between what sellers ask and what buyers pay.
Bella Terra
- Active Listings: 27
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 34
- Homes Pending: 16
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 37.0%
- Months of Inventory: 3.2
- Median Sold Price: $457,500
- Sellers Received: 96.8% of asking price
Bella Terra is one of the tighter markets in this group, with recent sales (34) outpacing active inventory (27) and just 3.2 months of supply. More than one-third of active listings are homes returning from a prior attempt, and every returning seller came back lower with a median adjustment of about 6.5%. About 63% of listings have been on market less than 60 days, and only 7% have crossed 180. The 4-bedroom segment is moving well at a median 32 DOM. Monthly sold medians declined from $550,000 in November to $261,450 in February, likely reflecting a change in what closed rather than broad softening. Tight supply is a genuine advantage, but the 37% relist share reminds that the first pricing decision still matters. With 3.2 months of inventory, there is less room to wait here than in most Southwest Florida communities.
Search Bella Terra homes for sale
Cascades at Estero
- Active Listings: 11
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 11
- Homes Pending: 8
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 9.1%
- Months of Inventory: 4.0
- Median Sold Price: $399,000
- Sellers Received: 94.8% of asking price
Cascades maintains closely aligned inventory and sales, with active listings matching closings over the past 120 days. The 9.1% relist share is the lowest in the Estero group by a wide margin, and 8 homes pending against 11 active reflects closely matched supply and demand. More than half of active inventory has been on market less than 60 days. The 2+den segment leads with 6 listings at a $449,500 median and 41 DOM. The low relist share and pending activity suggest most listings are finding the market within a reasonable window. For buyers, this is a smaller pool, so acting on the right home matters more than waiting for a better deal.
Search Cascades at Estero homes for sale
Grandezza
- Active Listings: 21
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 14
- Homes Pending: 13
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 28.6%
- Months of Inventory: 6.0
- Median Sold Price: $615,000
- Sellers Received: 95.4% of asking price
Grandezza shows steady activity with a pending count (13) nearly equal to recent sales (14). Just under one-third of active listings are returning homes, with those sellers adjusting by a median of about 10%, the largest reduction in the Estero group. The community spans a wide range, from Sabal Palm and Oakwood listings in the $400,000s to Grande Estates at over $3 million. The active median ($429,900) sits below the sold median because recent closings included a concentration of larger homes. Pending homes carry a $657,000 median at just 19 DOM, pointing toward the upper half of the range for the next wave of closings. The 10% median relist adjustment shows that getting the price right from the start saves considerable time. The variety of sub-communities creates options for buyers at several levels.
Search Grandezza homes for sale
Stoneybrook
- Active Listings: 14
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 13
- Homes Pending: 8
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 14.3%
- Months of Inventory: 4.3
- Median Sold Price: $429,000
- Sellers Received: 94.7% of asking price
Stoneybrook shows sales closely tracking current supply with 4.3 months of inventory. The relist share (14.3%) is among the lowest in Estero, and zero active listings have crossed the 180-day mark, making this the freshest inventory in the group. The 2+den segment offers the most affordable entry at 5 listings, $359,000 median, and just 24 DOM. Every recent closing settled below list price, with sellers receiving 94.7% of asking. Pending homes carry a $335,000 median, with the most affordable tier driving current contract activity. Balanced supply and the absence of stale inventory mean sellers here face less accumulated competition than in most communities. Fewer choices, but also less of the extended negotiation found in deeper markets.
Search Stoneybrook homes for sale
Verdana Village
- Active Listings: 30
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 43
- Homes Pending: 8
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 20.0%
- Months of Inventory: 2.8
- Median Sold Price: $610,000
- Sellers Received: 97.4% of asking price
Verdana Village posts the tightest numbers of any featured community across all five city reports. Sales (43) have outpaced active inventory (30) over the past four months, producing 2.8 months of supply. Nearly half of recent closings (47%) came in at or above asking price, the highest at-or-above rate in this report. All homes were built between 2022 and 2026, and that newer construction is a factor. The 3+den segment is the sweet spot with 9 active listings at a $725,000 median and just 24 DOM. For homeowners, 2.8 months of supply and a 47% at-or-above-list rate mean listings priced to recent comparables are finding contracts quickly. For buyers, the most competitive environment in Estero, where strong offers carry more weight than in most communities.
Search Verdana Village homes for sale
The Place at Corkscrew
- Active Listings: 36
- Sold (Last 120 Days): 31
- Homes Pending: 18
- Previously Listed Share of Active: 27.8%
- Months of Inventory: 4.6
- Median Sold Price: $700,000
- Sellers Received: 96.1% of asking price
The Place at Corkscrew maintains a balanced profile, with pending activity (18) representing half of the active inventory. Just over one-quarter of listings are second-attempt entries, with returning sellers adjusting by a median of about 6%. All homes were built between 2017 and 2022, keeping inventory relatively uniform in age and condition. The range runs from 2+den homes near $570,000 to 5-bedroom homes approaching $1 million, with the 4+den segment moving fastest at 52 DOM. What sellers are asking and what buyers are paying per square foot are closely aligned (2.5% gap), indicating current listings are well positioned. The 96.1% sold-to-list ratio and steady pending activity reflect a market absorbing inventory at a consistent pace. 36 listings across a range of sizes offer buyers room to compare, with the longest-sitting homes presenting the most flexibility.
Search The Place at Corkscrew homes for sale
How Estero Compares Across the Region
The table below places Estero alongside the four other major Southwest Florida markets. Estero holds the tightest competitive supply in the region (3.6 months) and posted the strongest closed sales growth after Bonita Springs, with a sold-to-list ratio that reflects tighter alignment between asking prices and buyer expectations.
| City | Median Sold Price | Price/SF | Active Listings | Months of Supply | Sold-to-List | Closed Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $325,000 | $202 | 3,506 | 7.9 | 95.6% | +9.6% |
| Cape Coral | $375,000 | $218 | 3,091 | 6.3 | 97.0% | +16.0% |
| Estero | $425,000 | $252 | 753 | 6.3 | 96.4% | +18.1% |
| Bonita Springs | $565,000 | $308 | 1,245 | 8.4 | 95.5% | +23.0% |
| Naples | $665,000 | $346 | 6,153 | 8.8 | 95.2% | +15.2% |
Source: FGCMLS. All metrics reflect February 2026 single-month data unless otherwise noted. The sold-to-list ratio reflects the most recent list price at the time of contract, not the original asking price. The listing-level analysis sections (community profiles, competitive inventory, relist data) use 120-day snapshots to capture enough transactions for meaningful analysis.
For the full regional analysis, see the Southwest Florida housing market update.
What Estero Homeowners Are Asking
Estero sits closer to balanced than any other Southwest Florida city, with the competitive segment (3.6 months of supply) approaching seller’s market territory. Buyers still negotiate roughly 3.7% off asking on average. The 43.5% surge in pending contracts and the 36.3% pending-to-active ratio both favor sellers who price accurately.
Inventory fell 19.2%, pending sales surged 43.5%, and months of supply dropped from 9.4 to 6.3. Price per square foot declined 14.0%, though it has stabilized since mid-2025. The change from a year ago is clear: more buyer activity, less inventory, and faster absorption.
Verdana Village leads with 2.8 months of supply and 47% of closings at or above asking. Bella Terra (3.2 months) and Stoneybrook (4.3 months) follow. Cascades at Estero shows a 9.1% relist rate, the lowest in the group. Communities built after 2015 generally show tighter metrics than older inventory.
First-attempt homes that sold closed in a median of 69 days. Homes that failed and relisted spent 236 total days. The competitive segment (fresh, well-priced inventory) shows a median of 27 days on market. Pricing accuracy is the primary variable.
Estero offers the tightest supply (3.6 months competitive), the narrowest ask-bid gap (4.5%), and the strongest pending growth (43.5%). Those metrics come with a higher median price point ($425,000 median) than Fort Myers ($325,000) or Cape Coral ($375,000). Estero suits buyers who prioritize newer construction and communities with strong amenities.
Final Thoughts on the Estero Real Estate Market
Estero’s fundamentals are the strongest in the region by most measures. The 3.6-month competitive supply, the 4.5% ask-bid gap, and the 43.5% surge in pending activity all point to a market where inventory is moving. Sellers benefit from that efficiency when they price to recent comparable sales. Buyers should recognize that they have less room to negotiate here than in neighboring cities.
Search Estero homes or contact our team to discuss what these numbers mean for your specific community and price range.
Most homeowners feel overwhelmed when it’s time to move. At Worthington Realty, we provide personalized guidance and clear communication so that you feel heard, valued, and confident in your decisions.
Explore the March 2026 Southwest Florida Market Series
- Southwest Florida Housing Market Update
- Fort Myers Housing Market Update
- Cape Coral Housing Market Update
- Bonita Springs Housing Market Update
- Naples Housing Market Update
Explore Homes for Sale and Learn About Living In:
Fort Myers | Cape Coral | Estero | Bonita Springs | Naples
