Fewer Homes for Sale, More Buyers Under Contract, but Sellers Pricing to 2024 Comparables Are the Ones Not Closing
Data reflects MLS records as of April 1, 2026. MLS figures may update as late transactions are recorded.
Active listings fell nearly 20% region-wide year over year while pending sales rose 14.6%, a combination that points to real buyer engagement in a market where the number of homes for sale keeps falling. The friction in the regional picture is that price per square foot has not followed supply lower. Ask-Bid Gaps across the five cities range from 5.3% in Fort Myers to 16.0% in Naples, reflecting an active listing pool still priced above where buyers are transacting.
The Worthington Realty Southwest Florida Housing Market Report for April 2026 covers March 2026 transaction data across five markets: Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Estero, Bonita Springs, and Naples. City-level reports for all five markets are linked in the series index below and draw from the same dataset. All data draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS).
Key Takeaways
- Active listings across Southwest Florida fell to 20,656 in March 2026, down 19.9% from 25,785 a year ago, with every city seeing fewer homes for sale and Cape Coral leading at -27.5%.
- Pending sales rose 14.6% year over year to 3,822 and showings per listing climbed 20% to 3.6, the strongest sign of buyer engagement the region has seen since 2021.
- Months of supply compressed from 10.9 to 7.7 year over year. Competitive Inventory months of supply across the five cities ranges from 3.5 to 4.7, representing the supply a correctly priced seller actually competes against after filtering out stale listings and stubborn relists.
- Relisted homes that eventually sold left between $15,000 and $24,000 on the table relative to original asking prices, depending on the city, and accumulated additional weeks on market before finding a buyer.
- Regional median sold price per square foot fell 3.6% year over year to $243. Ask-Bid Gaps range from 5.3% in Fort Myers to 16.0% in Naples, measuring where active listings are priced against where closed transactions are actually landing.
Closed Sales Rose 2.4% Region-Wide but the City-Level Picture Splits Sharply
Closed sales tell us what buyers decided weeks ago. Pending sales tell us what they are deciding right now.
The region recorded 3,091 closed sales in March 2026, up 2.4% from 3,019 a year ago, with total dollar volume of $2.20 billion, essentially flat year over year. That regional figure obscures a sharp city-level split. Estero’s closed sales surged 26.7% and Bonita Springs gained 11.4%, reflecting markets where sellers pricing accurately are seeing buyers close. Fort Myers fell 9.5% and Cape Coral fell 14.5%, but both are measured against an exceptionally strong March 2025. The pending sales growth in both cities — up 18.3% in Fort Myers and 15.1% in Cape Coral year over year — tells the more useful story. Pending sales are a leading indicator: those contracts close next month. The closed count reflects what buyers decided in January and February. The strong pending growth is the signal that buyer confidence in both cities is building, not fading.
Pending sales at 3,822 represent the strongest forward-looking demand signal in the region since late 2021. The pending-to-active ratio sits at 18.5% region-wide, with Estero reaching 34.9%, the highest in Southwest Florida. These ratios are rising across all five cities, meaning more buyers are going under contract relative to available homes, even in cities where headline closing counts are still down year over year.
Showings per listing rose from 3.0 to 3.6 year over year, a 20% increase. Estero’s showing rate climbed from 2.9 to 4.3, up 48%, and Cape Coral reached 4.6, the highest in the region. Showings per listing is the earliest leading indicator in the sequence: buyers look before they offer, and they offer before they close.
Rates Are Lower Than They Were a Year Ago
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.46% for the week ending April 2, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, down from 6.64% a year ago but up from around 5.90% in late February — rates have risen more than 50 basis points in six weeks. For buyers financing purchases in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, where more buyers take out mortgages than in the luxury markets, both the year-over-year comparison and the recent trajectory matter. Cash buyers in Naples and Bonita Springs are not directly affected by rate changes the same way.
Active Listings Have Fallen to Their Lowest Level Since 2022 Across Southwest Florida
Active listings count every property on the market: fresh listings, returning relists, and homes that have been sitting for more than a year without finding a buyer. The new listing count can overstate fresh supply when a meaningful share of those additions are homes that previously failed to sell and are trying again.
Active listings fell from 25,785 to 20,656 year over year, a 19.9% decline. The main reason is simple: fewer homes are coming on the market. New listings came in at 4,591 for March, down 20.9% from 5,804 a year ago, meaning sellers are entering the market at a noticeably lower rate than last spring.
The composition of active listings matters as much as the count. Roughly 20% of current active listings across the five cities have been on market for 180 days or more, a persistent pool of sellers who have not yet adjusted pricing to where buyers are transacting. An additional 25% sit in the 90-to-179-day window. Fresh listings under 90 days represent 53% to 58% of each city’s active pool.
Properties that listed in the past 12 months, did not sell, and have not come back to market represent a forward-looking supply signal. That shadow inventory pool — owners who tried, found no buyer, and stepped back — ranges from roughly 750 in Estero to nearly 5,800 in Naples. These figures are directional rather than precise, but the volume in each city is large enough to add meaningful supply if those sellers decide to try again.
Overall Months of Supply Fell 29% Year Over Year and Competitive Supply Is Even Tighter
Months of supply answers a specific question: if no new listings entered the market today, how long would it take to sell through the current inventory at the current pace of closings? Six months is the traditional benchmark for a balanced market, but in Southwest Florida the season and price tier matter as much as the number.
Months of supply across the region fell from 10.9 in March 2025 to 7.7 in March 2026. Every city saw fewer months of supply: Bonita Springs dropped 35.0%, Estero dropped 34.8%, Cape Coral dropped 33.3%, Fort Myers dropped 30.6%, and Naples dropped 28.1%. A year ago every city in this corridor was running above 10 months of supply.
The Inventory Buyers Have Already Rejected Is Not Real Competition
Competitive Inventory strips two categories from the active pool: stale inventory (listings on market 180 or more days without a meaningful price reduction) and stubborn relists (homes that returned at less than a 3% reduction from their prior listing price). What remains is the supply a well-priced, motivated seller actually competes against.
Across the five cities, Competitive Inventory months of supply ranges from 3.5 to 4.7. The stale-stripped tier ranges from 5.1 to 7.2. The spread between overall months of supply and Competitive MOI tells sellers something important: a meaningful share of the apparent competition is inventory that buyers have already evaluated and passed on. A correctly priced new listing competes against a substantially smaller pool than the headline active count suggests.
One in Four Southwest Florida Listings Is on Its Second Attempt and Sellers Are Paying for It
The Re-list Rate measures what percentage of current active listings have already failed to sell at least once in the past 12 months. It is a behavioral signal, telling us how sellers as a group are responding to current conditions.
Across the five cities, Re-list Rates range from 24.9% in Estero to 29.7% in Fort Myers. Roughly one in four to one in three homes currently on the market is making its second or later attempt. When a home relists under a new MLS number, its days-on-market counter resets to zero. That resets the clock and hides how long the home has really been for sale. A buyer browsing active listings cannot see the prior listing history. A home presented as “New Listing, 5 days on market” may have spent 180 days on market the previous year, been withdrawn, and returned. The reset systematically understates how long the most persistent listings have actually been available.
What the Relist Dollar Cost Looks Like City by City
Relisting costs sellers money and time, and the data is consistent across all five cities. Median original asking prices for homes that eventually sold after relisting ran $15,000 higher than their final sale prices in Fort Myers and $24,000 higher in Cape Coral. Estero’s relist dollar figure was $20,500, Bonita Springs $16,000, and Naples $17,500. These represent what sellers left on the table relative to original pricing, before accounting for carrying costs across the additional listing period.
Active relisted listings currently accumulate meaningful days in their second attempt before going under contract. Median current-attempt DOM runs from 76 days in Estero to 112 days in Bonita Springs. The most persistent cases, homes through three or more attempts within 12 months, appear in all five cities and represent the most significant pricing misalignment in the regional pool.
Regional PPSF Is Down 3.6% Year Over Year and Asking Prices Have Not Followed
Median sale price moves when the mix of homes closing changes: more luxury closings push it up, more entry-level closings push it down, even when underlying values have not changed. Price per square foot normalizes for home size and is the more reliable read on what is actually happening to values.
Southwest Florida homes are selling for about 3.6% less per square foot than a year ago. The median sale price tells a narrower story.
The regional median sale price for March 2026 came in at $410,000, down 1.4% from $416,000 a year ago. The more meaningful figure: regional median sold PPSF fell from $252 to $243. Fort Myers recorded the steepest PPSF drop at -8.5% ($223 to $204). Naples fell 8.9% ($358 to $326). Estero fell 9.9% in single-month terms, though the three-month rolling figure, more reliable for Estero given lower monthly volume, shows a 10.6% decline ($282 to $252). Bonita Springs, where median sale price rose 1.8% to $580,000, saw PPSF fall 5.2% ($326 to $309), a clear sales mix distortion: larger, higher-priced homes closing this month pushed the median price up while per-unit values moved lower.
Dollar volume reached $2.20 billion in March 2026, up 1.5% year over year. More transactions at lower average per-unit prices produce essentially flat aggregate volume.
The Ask-Bid Gap Ranges from 5.3% in Fort Myers to 16.0% in Naples
The sold-to-list ratio compares what homes sold for to their most recent asking price at the time of contract. Worthington uses the most recent list price, not the original asking price. The full spread from original expectation to final sale is captured separately in the Ask-Bid Gap.
The region-wide sold-to-list ratio for March 2026 is 96.1%, flat with 96.5% a year ago. Cape Coral leads at 97.4%; Bonita Springs (95.1%) and Naples (95.4%) trail. Buyers across the region are getting within 3% to 5% of the most recent asking price at contract. The pricing friction is earlier in the process, at the Ask-Bid Gap, not at the negotiating table.
The Ask-Bid Gap measures the percentage difference between the median asking PPSF of current active listings and the median sold PPSF of recent closings. It captures where sellers are pricing relative to where buyers are actually transacting. Fort Myers carries the smallest reading at 5.3% (asking $216.75/sf vs. sold $205.75/sf). Cape Coral is 15.3% (asking $244/sf vs. sold $212/sf). Estero is 6.1%. Bonita Springs reaches 13.8% and Naples leads the region at 16.0% (asking $388/sf vs. sold $334/sf). The wide readings in Cape Coral, Bonita Springs, and Naples reflect the concentration of longer-tenured listings priced at 2024 levels, inventory that has not repriced to where buyers are transacting in 2026.
Southwest Florida Regional Comparison Tables
Core Market Metrics (March 2026 Data)
| City | Median Sold Price | Price/SF | Active Listings | Months of Supply | Sold-to-List | Closed Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $335,000 | $204 | 3,402 | 7.5 | 96.1% | -9.5% |
| Cape Coral | $355,000 | $207 | 2,977 | 6.0 | 97.4% | -14.5% |
| Estero | $467,500 | $246 | 731 | 6.0 | 96.1% | +26.7% |
| Bonita Springs | $580,000 | $309 | 1,172 | 7.8 | 95.1% | +11.4% |
| Naples | $587,500 | $326 | 6,124 | 8.7 | 95.4% | +11.7% |
| SWFL Region | $410,000 | $243 | 20,656 | 7.7 | 96.1% | +2.4% |
Source: FGCMLS via Stellar MLS. March 2026 data. Months of Supply uses 12-month trailing average closing rate. Sold-to-list uses most recent list price at time of contract.
Worthington Market Lens (March 2026 Data)
| City | Competitive MOI | Re-list Rate | Ask-Bid Gap | Pending-to-Active | First-Attempt DOM | Relist DOM (current attempt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | 4.2 | 29.7% | 5.3% | 25.2% | 54 days | 89 days |
| Cape Coral | 3.5 | 26.3% | 15.3% | 29.6% | 54 days | 77 days |
| Estero | 3.6 | 24.9% | 6.1% | 34.9% | 66 days | 76 days |
| Bonita Springs | 4.2 | 28.3% | 13.8% | 28.1% | 61 days | 112 days |
| Naples | 4.7 | 27.7% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 61 days | 90 days |
Competitive MOI uses active listings under 90 days on market as numerator, 12-month trailing average closed sales as denominator. Relist DOM reflects current-listing-attempt days for relisted active listings still on market and does not include time from the prior listing attempt. True combined DOM across both attempts would be significantly higher.
How Each City Fits the Regional Story This Month
Each of the five city reports delivers the full analytical framework at the local level, including three-tier months-of-supply breakdown, community profiles, and FAQ sections. Estero and Naples represent the two ends of the regional spectrum this month: Estero where sellers are pricing accurately and homes are closing quickly, Naples where buyers and sellers are still working out where prices actually are. Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Bonita Springs each sit at a distinct point between those poles.
Fort Myers
Inventory is down 24.1% year over year, pending sales rose 18.3% year over year, and showings climbed 25.9% year over year — the leading indicators are pointing strongly forward. Closed sales fell 9.5% year over year against a strong March 2025 comparison, and median days on market rose 44.4%. The closed count and DOM reflect the recent past and pricing misalignment in part of the market. The pending growth reflects where demand is headed.
Dive deeper into the Fort Myers housing market →
Cape Coral
More buyers are touring homes in Cape Coral than anywhere else in Southwest Florida — 4.6 showings per listing — and there are 27.5% fewer homes for sale than a year ago. Pending sales are up 15.1% year over year. But sellers are asking 15.3% more per square foot than where recent closings are landing, and closed sales fell 14.5% year over year. Buyers are showing up. The asking prices are not meeting them.
Read more about the Cape Coral housing market → (Coming soon!)
Estero
Estero has the least available inventory of any Southwest Florida city, with just 3.6 months of supply for a correctly priced seller. Closed sales rose 26.7% year over year, the strongest growth in the region, and showings per listing rose 48.3% year over year. More than one in three Estero listings has a buyer under contract right now. When sellers price to current comps in Estero, homes are moving.
Read the full Estero Housing Market Report → (Coming soon!)
Bonita Springs
Bonita Springs lost more inventory than any other city — 35% fewer homes for sale than a year ago. Pending sales rose 11.7% year over year and closings rose 11.4% year over year. But sellers are still asking 13.8% more per square foot than where deals are closing, and homes listed twice are already a median of 112 days into this second attempt. Fewer competing listings helps sellers who price accurately. It does not help sellers who do not.
Learn more about the Bonita Springs housing market → (Coming soon!)
Naples
Naples has the most homes for sale of any city in the region and the widest spread between asking prices and where deals are closing — sellers are asking 16% more per square foot than where recent closings landed. Home values fell 8.9% year over year. At the same time, pending sales rose 13.6% year over year and closings rose 11.7% year over year, the only city in Southwest Florida with double-digit growth in both. Buyers are active in Naples. They are buying when the price is right.
Explore the Naples housing market in depth → (Coming soon!)
Frequently Asked Questions About the Southwest Florida Housing Market
It depends on which city and price tier. For correctly priced listings, most Southwest Florida markets are running balanced-to-seller-favorable — Competitive MOI ranges from 3.5 months in Cape Coral to 4.7 in Naples. For listings priced above where recent closings landed, it is a buyer’s market in every city.
Naples and Cape Coral offer the most negotiating room, both carrying Ask-Bid Gaps above 13%. Estero is the tightest, with 3.6 months of Competitive MOI and more than one in three listings already under contract.
Down on a per-square-foot basis. Regional median sold PPSF fell from $252 to $243 year over year. Fort Myers and Naples each fell close to 9%; Estero fell roughly 10%. Bonita Springs’ median sale price rose, but per-square-foot values fell there too — a mix shift toward larger homes closed that gap.
Most of the listings accumulating days entered the market in 2022 or 2023 and have not adjusted to where buyers are transacting today. Roughly one in four to one in three active listings across the region is on its second or later attempt to sell.
Start with your city’s report for community-level data and specific comparables. This hub is the right starting point if you’re comparing cities or trying to understand the regional picture first. All five city reports are linked in the series index below.
Final Thoughts on the Southwest Florida Housing Market
The Southwest Florida housing market in April 2026 is not one market — it is five, each at a different point in the same regional story. Supply is down. Demand is up. Rates are lower than they were a year ago, though they rose sharply in the final weeks of March. Those conditions favor sellers, in theory. In practice, the sellers getting clean offers and closing on schedule are the ones who priced to where buyers are actually transacting, not where they hoped the market had arrived. The details that matter to your specific decision live at the local level.
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April 2026 Southwest Florida Housing Market Report Series
- Southwest Florida Housing Market Report ← You are here
- Fort Myers Housing Market Report
- Cape Coral Housing Market Report (Coming soon!)
- Estero Housing Market Report (Coming soon!)
- Bonita Springs Housing Market Report (Coming soon!)
- Naples Housing Market Report (Coming soon!)
IDX Searches Fort Myers homes for sale | Cape Coral homes for sale | Estero homes for sale | Bonita Springs homes for sale | Naples homes for sale
All data referenced in Worthington’s market reports draws from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS (FGCMLS via Stellar MLS) unless otherwise noted. Read more about how we calculate these metrics.
