Transaction Activity Climbs as Buyers Respond to Adjusted Pricing
Closed sales finished November ahead of last year in all five major markets. Pending and closed sales in the Southwest Florida real estate market are running well above 2024 levels, and pending sales look up 15–22% so far. Current inventory levels in Southwest Florida declined 24% from their March peak, and months of supply eased from 10.9 to 7.8. Buyers waited through early 2025, then stepped back in once pricing lined up with what recent closings supported. Nearly 30% of today’s active inventory consists of properties returning after an unsuccessful first attempt, a shadow cycle that explains why some neighborhoods feel quieter than the regional statistics suggest.
All data is from the Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association and Florida Gulf Coast MLS via Stellar MLS and is current as of December 1, 2025. These figures are preliminary and will be finalized mid-December, but the direction is already clear.
Key Takeaways (TL;DR)
• Closed sales improved year over year in every city: Estero (+30.6%), Bonita Springs (+28%), Fort Myers (+11.3%), Naples (+6.3%), Cape Coral (+5.7%).
• Pending sales look up 15–22%, suggesting buyer activity continues into the winter season.
• 55% of listings closed successfully this year — the other 45% pulled back and are relisting now.
• Nearly 30% of active inventory is returning inventory, a major factor behind how “slow” some neighborhoods feel.
• Most relisted properties trimmed roughly 5 to 6%, enough to line up with the latest comparable sales.
Southwest Florida Housing Trends: What’s Driving the Activity
Buyer activity in the Southwest Florida real estate market improved steadily through the fall as pricing and expectations came into alignment. Inventory peaked in early spring, then declined month after month. Absorption strengthened as more homes were priced off what had actually sold nearby. And buyers re-engaged once value became more clear across Lee and Collier Counties.
From March to November, active listings fell from 25,718 to 19,639 — a 24% drop. Months of supply eased from 10.9 to 7.8, and pending sales moved ahead of last year by 15–22%. Closed sales were positive in every major market.
The homes going under contract right now are priced where the recent closings are. That’s it. Homes that don’t adjust accordingly, priced higher than their peers, tend to sit longer.
The Southwest Florida “Shadow Inventory” Cycle
Since January, 16,328 properties came off the market without selling. They either expired, were withdrawn, or were terminated. Of these, 3,879 have already returned, representing 28% of today’s active inventory. That’s 3,879 individual addresses that are back on the market today.
These returning listings are simply homes that needed a second (or third) chance at the right price point. They also explain a common question: why does a neighborhood feel slow when the broader southwest florida real estate market shows improving activity? Simple. A lot of the signs you see this weekend are on houses that were already on the market in the spring but didn’t sell.
How Pricing Has Corrected
Most returning listings adjusted just enough to match recent sales. On average, relisted homes reduced pricing by about 5–6%, with a median adjustment of 4.8%.
Breakdown of the adjustments:
- Only about 10.6% reduced more than 15%
- 24% reduced more than 10%
- 44% reduced 2–10%
- 27% returned at essentially the same price
- 5% increased their price
When we pull the data each month, we’re seeing the same pattern: modest adjustments are usually enough when the home lines up with what recent closings support.
Southwest Florida City-by-City Breakdown
The following table shows how prices evolved from November 2020 through the market peak and into November 2025.
| City | Nov 2020 Median | Peak Median | Nov 2025 Median | % Increase Since Nov 2020 | % Decline From Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $250,000 | $410,000 | $335,000 | +34% | –18% |
| Cape Coral | $284,000 | $437,000 | $384,000 | +35% | –12% |
| Estero | $315,000 | $610,000 | $555,000 | +76% | –9% |
| Bonita Springs | $375,550 | $692,000 | $465,000 | +24% | –33% |
| Naples | $385,000 | $675,000 | $560,000 | +45% | –17% |
Even with meaningful adjustments from their highs, Southwest Florida home prices remain well above 2020 levels.
Fort Myers
Fort Myers recorded an 11.3% increase in closed sales, showing clear buyer response to improved value. Months of supply settled in the mid-7 range after peaking in spring. Returning listings make up about 30% of actives, reflecting the mix of ages and price points in the market. Homes priced within range of recent comparable sales saw steady activity.
Cape Coral
Months of supply sits near 6.3 — the lowest in the region and close to balanced conditions. Closed sales were up 5.7% year over year, and returning inventory represents a smaller share of actives compared with other Southwest Florida markets. Buyers continue to move on well priced single-family homes, particularly those listed in line with comparable sales.
Estero
Estero showed the strongest year-over-year gain in closed sales at just over 31%. Newer homes and communities with favorable insurance structures continue attracting steady demand. Months of supply sits around 6.6, and returning listings account for about 27% of actives. We are seeing homes priced near the comp range going under contract in around 74 days.
Bonita Springs
Bonita Springs experienced one of the larger resets earlier in the cycle, but closed sales climbed 28% year over year. Months of supply is in the low-8s. Pending sales were nearly flat (+3.1%), a sign of steady but selective buyer activity. Roughly a third of active listings are returning inventory, which can make some communities feel softer than the regional numbers indicate.
Naples
Naples’ closed sales improved 6.3% year over year, and about 29% of active listings are second attempts. Luxury continues to move more slowly, with smaller adjustments (often around 3%) and longer days on market. Well-located condos and mid-range single-family homes priced where recent comps support saw better traction this fall.
Market Comparison Table (November 2025)
| City | Active Listings | YoY Closed Sales | YoY Pending Sales | % Returning Inventory | Avg Price Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | 3,300 | +11.3% | +13.7% | 30% | –6.1% |
| Cape Coral | 2,986 | +5.7% | +22.4% | 24% | –6.0% |
| Estero | 734 | +30.6% | +24.4% | 27% | –6.5% |
| Bonita Springs | 1,137 | +28.0% | +3.1% | 32% | –4.3% |
| Naples | 5,486 | +6.3% | +9.5% | 29% | –5.6% |
Market Conditions Heading Into 2026
Pending activity is running ahead of last year, inventory is well below the March peak, and closed sales are positive across every city. The absorption is real, driven by pricing that finally lines up with what buyers are willing to pay.
That trend is likely to carry through season. Months of supply has pulled back from its spring high and moved closer to balance, and transaction activity keeps building as overpriced listings either adjust or step out of the market.
Rates, insurance costs, and broader economic questions haven’t gone away. What has changed is seller strategy. When prices reflect the most recent closings, buyers move. When they don’t, listings sit — sometimes for a second or third time.
With nearly a third of today’s inventory back on the market after an unsuccessful first attempt, seller expectations are getting closer to reality. The rest will cycle out again if nothing changes. The signal heading into 2026 is steady: demand is present, and pricing still separates the homes that move from the homes that linger.
What Southwest Florida Homeowners Are Asking
Of the 3,879 homes that relisted, the ones that made real adjustments are moving. The 27% that came back unchanged are mostly still sitting. If the first attempt didn’t work, something has to change this time. Nine times out of ten that something is price.
You’re seeing the shadow inventory cycle. Nearly 30% of active listings are second or third attempts. Those recycled listings create the appearance of a stalled market, but fresh inventory priced near recent closings is moving. The signs from spring are the noise. The homes that listed last month, were priced right, and went pending? That’s the signal.
Pull the last five closings within a half-mile that are similar — same bedrooms, similar updates, same side of the street if it matters. If you’re within 5% of those, you’re in the game. 10% or more above and you’re fighting the same battle 45% lost this year.
Cape Coral and Estero are nearest to balanced conditions, with months of supply around 6.3 and 6.6. Estero posted 31% growth in closed sales. Cape Coral has the lowest returning inventory at 24%. Naples and Bonita Springs are still working through more recycled listings.
Yes. Buyers have more leverage than at any point since 2019. Months of supply in the 6–8 range means time to compare and negotiate. Almost a third of what you see online has already tried once — and many of those sellers are more realistic now than they were in March. Check the listing history before making an offer. It tells you a lot about where the seller’s head is.
Final Thoughts on the Southwest Florida Real Estate Market
The Southwest Florida real estate market seems to be on the mend. Inventory is down, sales are up, and buyers have returned as pricing aligns with current conditions. The shadow inventory cycle is still working its way through the system, but the homes priced where the comps sit continue to move. The ones reaching for earlier numbers tend to stay on the market longer.
If you want to understand how these trends affect your neighborhood or your home’s value, you can search homes for sale in Southwest Florida or contact us to walk through the numbers together.
Most homeowners feel overwhelmed when it’s time to move. At Worthington Realty, we provide personalized guidance and clear communication so that you feel heard, valued, and confident in your decisions.
Sources & Methodology: All data in this report comes directly from the Royal Palm Coast REALTOR® Association, Florida Gulf Coast MLS, and Stellar MLS, combined with multi-year InfoSparks trend analysis and a full address-level review of every active, closed, expired, and returning listing in Southwest Florida from January through November 2025. Citywide metrics such as prices, pending sales, closed sales, days on market, months supply, and inventory are based on finalized MLS trend data. Community-level insights, including shadow inventory rates, price adjustments, negotiation patterns, and success rates, come from matching individual properties across multiple listing attempts to track how pricing and time on market influenced outcomes. This blended approach gives a clear, evidence-based view of how the Southwest Florida real estate market is actually moving as we head into the 2026 season.
