Buyer’s Market Tightens as Inventory Falls to 7.1 Months
The Southwest Florida real estate market is still tilted toward buyers, but the leverage is starting to shift. Months of supply, which peaked at nearly 11 in March, has now eased for seven straight months, settling at 7.1 in September. Buyers continue to have options and negotiating room, but the extreme buyer’s market of spring 2025 is tightening.
MLS data through September 2025 shows how pricing, inventory, and buyer activity are changing across Lee and Collier Counties. This update also highlights what these shifts mean for buyers, sellers, and investors heading into fall.
Key Takeaways (TL;DR)
- Buyer’s market continues but is tightening: Supply declined from 10.9 months in March to 7.1 in September.
- Pending sales rising: 2,148 contracts signed, up 8.3% YoY, signaling stronger closings in Q4.
- Prices diverging by city: Estero (+12.3%) and Bonita Springs (+2.3%) gained, while Cape Coral (-6.7%) and Naples (-1.7%) softened. Fort Myers basically holding flat.
- Homes slower to sell: Median days on market climbed to 72 (+18%).
- Opportunities remain: Buyers can still negotiate, but well-priced homes are moving faster than earlier this year.
Southwest Florida Real Estate Market: Pricing and Inventory
Median prices across the Southwest Florida real estate market ticked up to $395,000 in September, a 1.3 percent increase from August but 1.2 percent below last year. That slight rise underscores the market’s stabilization. While the average remains higher due to a few luxury closings, most transactions are still concentrated in the $300,000–$400,000 range where typical buyers are active.
At the city level, the story was uneven. Estero surged to $555,383, up 12.3 percent from last year, driven by steady demand for newer homes and lifestyle-focused communities. Bonita Springs rose to $562,500, a 2.3 percent increase year over year, reflecting buyer interest in mid-range homes near the Gulf.
Naples slipped to $580,000, down 1.7 percent, as high-carrying costs kept some buyers on the sidelines. Cape Coral fell to $350,000, a 6.7 percent decline, though affordability continues to attract first-time buyers and investors. Fort Myers stayed essentially flat at $347,000, less than one percent below last year.
Regionwide inventory totaled 17,186 active listings. That’s high enough to give buyers leverage, but the steady decline in supply since March confirms the buyer’s market is tightening. For comparison, the National Association of Realtors defines a balanced market as about six months of supply.
Southwest Florida Market Summary: September 2025 Data
| Market Area | Median Price | MoM Chg. | YoY Chg. | Closed Sales | Days on Market | Months Supply | Active Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Myers | $347,000 | +0.6% | -0.3% | 335 | 79 | 6.9 | 2,872 |
| Cape Coral | $350,000 | -2.2% | -6.7% | 418 | 60 | 6.1 | 2,822 |
| Estero | $555,383 | +13.9% | +12.3% | 86 | 61 | 6.0 | 624 |
| Bonita Springs | $562,500 | +11.9% | +2.3% | 120 | 81 | 6.7 | 893 |
| Naples | $580,000 | -3.3% | -1.7% | 547 | 86 | 7.1 | 4,508 |
| SWFL | $395,000 | +1.3% | -1.2% | 2,148 | 72 | 7.1 | 17,186 |
Southwest Florida Buyer Activity and Pending Sales
Contracts continue to climb. September recorded 2,148 pending sales, up 8.3 percent from last year. That’s a meaningful rebound after spring’s slowdown and suggests a stronger closing pace in the months ahead.
Activity is not uniform across cities. Estero and Bonita Springs led with price gains supported by demand, while Naples generated the highest transaction volume but required the most patience from sellers. Cape Coral stood out as one of the most affordable and one of the fastest-moving markets, with a median of just 60 days to sell.
Homes that matched buyer expectations went under contract in about seven showings. Overpriced or poorly presented homes stretched closer to 10–12 before finding a buyer.
Days on Market and Seller Expectations
Homes are taking longer to close. The regional median days on market reached 72, up from 61 last year.
Cape Coral and Estero saw quicker sales around 60 days. Fort Myers and Bonita Springs moved at a moderate pace, around 80 days. Naples required the most patience, averaging 86 days on the market.
For sellers, the “so what” is clear: strategy matters. Homes priced realistically are moving in line with the 72-day median. Those that overshoot can linger well past 90 days.
What This Means for Buyers
Southwest Florida is still a buyer’s market, but the leverage is no longer growing month by month. Buyers can typically negotiate 4–5 percent below asking and still have plenty of homes to choose from. With supply tightening, well-priced homes are beginning to move faster, especially in mid-range markets like Estero and Cape Coral.
What This Means for Sellers
Patience and precision are key. Homes are taking longer to sell than last year, but those that are staged, priced near the median, and marketed well are still moving within the expected timeframe. Sellers in Naples and Bonita Springs should prepare for longer negotiations, while those in Cape Coral or Estero may see quicker interest if they set the right price. For homeowners worried about listings stalling, we shared a strategy called the Seller’s Offer that can help turn buyer interest into action without resorting to public price cuts.
What This Means for Investors
The current conditions remain attractive for disciplined investors. Elevated listings mean there is room to negotiate, and longer days on market often signal motivated sellers. Properties in the $350,000–$400,000 range are showing the strongest liquidity, while higher-end listings may present deeper discount opportunities. Conservative underwriting remains essential as insurance and HOA costs continue to weigh on returns.
Lee & Collier Counties Market Outlook
The steady decline in months of supply since March suggests the housing market is moving toward balance, even if buyers still hold the upper hand today.
Want to learn more about the real estate cycle? Download our Real Estate Cycle Guide.
Pending sales growth indicates closings will strengthen through the fourth quarter, while prices are likely to stay relatively stable with city-level variations. Interest rates and carrying costs remain the swing factors for both affordability and activity into early 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Yes. With 7.1 months of supply, buyers hold the advantage. But supply has declined for seven straight months since March, showing the market is tightening.
It depends on the city. Estero and Bonita Springs saw gains in September, while Cape Coral and Naples declined. Overall, the regional median is down 1.2 percent from last year.
The median home sold in 72 days in September. Cape Coral and Estero were quicker at about 60 days, while Naples was the slowest at 86.
Pending sales climbed 8.3 percent year over year, signaling more closings ahead in the fourth quarter. It shows that demand is holding steady even with higher inventory.
With supply tightening and pending sales rising, buyers still have leverage but less than they did in the spring. Acting now means more choice and negotiating room before competition increases further.
Final Thoughts
The Southwest Florida real estate market in October 2025 remains favorable for buyers, but the pendulum is slowly swinging back toward balance. Supply is easing, pending sales are rising, and prices are stable in most areas. Buyers, sellers, and investors each have opportunities — as long as they align their strategies with a market in transition.
If you want to see what’s on the market right now, browse the latest Southwest Florida homes for sale.
Most homeowners feel overwhelmed when it’s time to move. At Worthington Realty, we provide personalized guidance and clear communication so that you feel heard, valued, and confident in your decisions.
Methodology & Sources: All market statistics were obtained from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS and analyzed by Worthington Realty. Historical month-by-month data reflect market activity through September 30, 2025, and were retrieved October 2, 2025. Figures are deemed reliable but not guaranteed and are subject to revision by the MLS.
