The Southwest Florida real estate market, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Bonita Springs, Estero, and Naples, has gone through a decade of dramatic change. From stable growth to pandemic-fueled extremes and now a significant price correction, today’s conditions present real opportunities for homebuyers, investors, and second-home seekers. This 10-year market analysis explains what’s happening now, why it matters, and where the timing fits for your next move.

TL;DR – Key Takeaways

• Market Status: Southwest Florida is in a buyer’s market with 8.8 months of inventory as of June 2025
• Price Correction: Median home price has dropped 14% from $465,000 (May 2022) to $400,000
• Buyer Leverage: Homes average 90 days on market and sell at 96% of list price
• Investment Opportunity: Properties that sold for $600,000 at peak are now available around $520,000
• 2025 Outlook: Buyer-friendly conditions expected through 2025, with normalization likely in 2026

This article uses MLS data through July 2025 to explain how 10 years of market evolution, from post-recession growth to pandemic extremes, has created rare buyer leverage in today’s Southwest Florida market.

10-Year Southwest Florida Real Estate Trends Creating Today’s Buyer Opportunity

Here’s the decade-long view: median prices rose steadily, peaked in May 2022, and then corrected as supply rebounded strongly.

Home prices peaked at $465,000 in May 2022 while inventory was at historic lows. By 2025, supply expanded and prices corrected—creating the most buyer-friendly conditions in over a decade. All data from Royal Palm Coast REALTOR Association. InfoSparks © 2025 ShowingTime Plus, LLC.

In 2015, you could tour four Southwest Florida homes on a Saturday morning, think it over during Sunday dinner, and make an offer Monday with a reasonable inspection period. Everyone played by the same rules.

For a few years, that pattern held. But pressures were quietly building…tax law changes, increased migration, and a tightening inventory were already starting to reshape buyer behavior.

Fast-forward to 2021. Those same buyers were camping out at open houses, waving cash offers $50,000 over asking price, and closing without inspections. The old rules no longer applied.

Today? The pendulum has swung decisively in favor of buyers. With 8.8 months of inventory and homes selling at 96% of list price, we’re witnessing the strongest buyer conditions in over a decade. For a little perspective, of Southwest Florida’s 650,000 homes, roughly 3.8% are currently for sale. That’s higher than the typical range of 1.5% to 2.5%, giving buyers more options without triggering panic or market instability.

Those who have followed the past decade of market change understand why this window of opportunity is both real and time-sensitive.

2015–2016 Southwest Florida Housing Market: A Look at Stability and Value

Back then, Southwest Florida real estate was running like a well-oiled machine. Properties took 60-75 days to sell, inventory stayed around 4.5-5 months, and sale prices hit 98-99% of asking.

Fort Myers meant family-friendly living with good schools. Cape Coral offered waterfront dreams without breaking budgets. Naples maintained its luxury reputation with steady, not wild, appreciation.

Investors could actually run the math: a $300,000 Cape Coral canal home might rent for $2,400, delivering solid returns plus 3-5% annual growth. Second-home shoppers from Chicago could visit multiple times, compare neighborhoods, and make thoughtful decisions.

It may feel distant now, but this was our reference point for what a stable market looked like.

2017–2019 Southwest Florida Market Shifts: Tax Changes and Migration Trends

Then subtle shifts began reshaping everything.

The 2017 tax law changes capped state and local tax deductions at $10,000 per year. That change significantly increased the effective tax burden for many high-income residents of states like New York and California. Suddenly, Florida’s zero income tax stood out as a strategic financial move.

Still, the overall Southwest Florida market remained relatively stable during this time. Months of supply averaged around 6.4, and homes typically took 80–90 days to sell. Inventory levels stayed steady, hovering near 16,000 active listings.

Migration from high-tax states continued, something Florida has seen for decades, but it didn’t yet translate into sharp market movement. Buyer urgency and competitive bidding hadn’t taken hold. The shifts underway were more foundational than frenzied, quietly setting the stage for the dramatic changes to come.

2020–2022 Southwest Florida Housing Market: Pandemic Boom and Seller Frenzy

March 2020 changed our world overnight.

The Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero while pumping trillions into the economy. Remote work made geography irrelevant for millions. Stock market gains created cash-rich buyers ready to relocate.

By 2021, our market exploded beyond recognition. Inventory plummeted below two months. Properties sold in days with multiple offers $50,000+ over asking. A buyer qualifying for $400,000 at 4% could suddenly afford $500,000 at 2.5%.

Naples saw even more intense competition from luxury buyers relocating from California and New York than usual. Cape Coral transformed from affordable family town to premium waterfront market virtually overnight. Bonita Springs saw bidding wars on homes that would have sat quietly months earlier. See how Bonita Springs is adjusting post-peak in our July 2025 report.

Investment math became impossible. By 2021, that same Cape Coral home that once sold for $300,000 was commanding $450,000, dropping yields from 8% to 4%. Many investors simply stepped aside.

Market knowledge mattered less than speed and available cash.

May 2022 Peak: Interest Rates Trigger Market Correction

Prices reached their peak in May 2022 at $465,000—the highest point in our market’s recorded history. But inventory was already building beneath the surface like water behind a dam.

Soon after, properties that had sold immediately began taking weeks. Premium pricing gave way to asking price, then below. The transition was gradual but unmistakable.

By 2023, economic realities took hold. The Fed’s inflation fight pushed rates from near-zero to over 5% in eighteen months. A buyer who qualified for $500,000 at 2.5% could only afford $350,000 at 6.5%. The buyer pool shrank just as sellers expected to maintain pandemic pricing.

As 2023 gave way to early 2024, experienced buyers started returning as yield calculations improved. Second-home shoppers gained breathing room. But many sellers still priced using 2022 comparables while buyers were now working with 2024 rates.

Something had to give.

Southwest Florida Buyer’s Market 2025: 14% Price Drop Creates Opportunity

The rebalancing that began quietly in early 2024 became more visible by summer, as price reductions accelerated and buyer leverage returned.

By mid-2025, median prices had dropped 14% from the May 2022 peak of $465,000 to approximately $400,000. This reset has brought values back in line with local incomes, removing the speculative premium while preserving the market’s core strength.

Inventory has expanded to 8.8 months, abundant by any measure, but remember: only 3.8% of all Southwest Florida homes are currently for sale. That’s higher than the usual 1.5–2.5%, offering selection without panic.

Want to see how this shift is playing out in specific cities? Read our July 2025 Fort Myers market report or see the latest on Cape Coral.

Properties now average 90 days on market, giving buyers time for thorough evaluation. Homes consistently sell at 96% of list price, creating immediate negotiation room.

Overpriced properties adjusted significantly while accurately priced homes in desirable locations held steady. Quality is being rewarded over quantity.

Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment and Second Home Buying Opportunities 2025

Understanding how we got here explains why today’s conditions exist and why they’re temporary.

Investment buyers can run numbers that work again. Homes that commanded $600,000 at the peak can now be purchased around $520,000, restoring positive cash flow for those who were priced out during the boom. Returns of 8–12% that were off the table two years ago are once again possible for buyers who understand timing.

Second-home buyers can shop Southwest Florida properly, leisurely, thoroughly, appreciating the lifestyle rather than panicking over availability. Multiple backup options exist with genuine negotiation opportunities. And with more buyers discovering neighborhoods that offer strong value and room for growth, read how Fort Myers is emerging as the Brooklyn of the Gulf Coast.

Relocating families can properly evaluate neighborhoods, local amenities, and long-term livability rather than grabbing whatever’s available.

The past ten years have shaped a market reset grounded in real economic shifts. These buyer-friendly conditions won’t last forever.

Southwest Florida Housing Market Predictions: Buyer Advantages Expected Through 2025

Current patterns suggest gradual normalization ahead:

If seasonal buying returns to normal, today’s 8.8 months supply will trend toward 6-8 months by late 2025.

If population growth continues at 2% annually (Florida added 467, 347 residents in 2024), demand fundamentals support resumed appreciation tied to economics, not speculation.

If rates stabilize around current levels, more buyers will adapt to the new reality, slowly increasing competition.

The 14% price adjustment appears complete.

Southwest Florida Real Estate Market Outlook: Timing, Value, and Buyer Leverage

This ten-year market evolution has created genuine buyer opportunity within healthy market conditions.

For Worthington Realty clients, this represents the convergence of selection, value, and negotiation power that occurs maybe once per decade. Our front-row seat to every phase of this market cycle, from balanced markets through pandemic chaos to today’s correction, positions us to recognize not just what’s available, but why timing matters.

Current market conditions give buyers real options, without the pressure we’ve seen in recent years. Whether you’re exploring investment properties, second homes, or primary residences, this is a rare window of opportunity.

This window won’t stay open forever. Right now, buyers have real options, solid value, and time to think clearly.

If you’re wondering whether it makes sense to act, we can help you sort through the noise and make a move with clarity and confidence that fits your goals. Contact us and let’s set up a time to talk!

Frequently Asked Questions About Southwest Florida’s Current Market

Q: Is now a good time to buy in Southwest Florida? A: Yes, current conditions offer the strongest buyer advantages in over a decade, with 8.8 months inventory and properties selling at 96% of list price.

Q: How much have Southwest Florida home prices corrected? A: Prices have declined 14% from the May 2022 peak of $465,000 to the current $400,000 median.

Q: What caused the extreme seller’s market of 2021-2022? A: Pandemic-driven factors including 2.5% interest rates, remote work policies, and tax law changes driving migration from high-tax states.

Q: How long will current buyer advantages last? A: Market normalization toward 6-8 months inventory is expected by late 2025, with gradual return to balanced conditions through 2026.

Q: Are there real estate investment opportunities in Southwest Florida? Yes. With prices down 14% from their peak and average time on market up to 90 days, investors are finding properties that cash flow again. Homes that were overpriced in 2022 are now offering solid returns, especially in Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Bonita Springs.

The story continues, but the next chapter favors those who understand its significance.